Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EST Mon Feb 14 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 14 2022 - 12Z Wed Feb 16 2022

...Unsettled weather to enter the Pacific Northwest today, before a burst
of light-to-moderate snow spreads across the Intermountain West and
Rockies through midweek...

...Critical fire weather conditions forecast throughout the southern High
Plains and parts of the Southwest...

Active weather is set to return to the western U.S. as a potent
upper-level low and associated strong cold front swings into the Pacific
Northwest today. Coastal/lower elevation rain showers will accompany the
system in western Oregon and Washington, with moderate snowfall possible
in the Cascades. By tonight and into early Tuesday, the aforementioned
cold front may spread a burst of snow into the Intermountain West and
Northern Rockies. Outside of the tallest mountain ranges, snowfall amounts
should generally remain under 4 inches. This system will also bring a
long-awaited reprieve from the recent warmth throughout much of
California. Highs will remain above average today before cooler air rushes
into the region by Tuesday. Additionally, gusty winds are possible for
much of the central Great Basin and High Desert region of southern Nevada
beginning tonight, as well as adjacent parts of California and northwest
Arizona. Winds could gust up to 50 mph and lead to blowing dust, isolated
tree damage, and a few power outages.

Ahead of the approaching western U.S. trough, warm southerly flow is
expected to rush into the Southern Plains and lead to widespread high
temperatures into the 60s and 70s both today and Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday
are expected to reach up to around 15 to 25 degrees above average compared
to normal mid-February conditions. The combination of low relative
humidity and gusty winds are forecast to result in critical fire weather
for much of the southern High Plains and into southern New Mexico/Arizona
beginning on Tuesday. Fire Weather Watches have been issued from southwest
Kansas to West Texas.

Elsewhere, building high pressure over the East will create mostly
tranquil conditions for the eastern half of the Nation through Wednesday.
Scattered lake effect snow showers will remain a possibility through
Tuesday, with light snow possibly skimming far northern sections of the
Upper Midwest on Tuesday as well. Meanwhile, a frigid airmass in place
from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Northeast will begin to retreat
by midweek as high pressure slips off the East Coast. Low temperatures
this morning throughout the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast will
start in the single digits or teens for most places. By Wednesday morning,
above average temperatures are expected to surge into the Midwest and Ohio
Valley, with single digits and subzero cold confined to northern New
England.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php