Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 15 2022 - 00Z Thu Feb 17 2022

...Pacific system to bring light to moderate snowfall and cooler
temperatures to the western US through midweek...

...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions forecast throughout the
southern High Plains and parts of the Southwest...

...Strong winds expected in California, Nevada, and Arizona overnight with
the passage of a strong cold front...

...Heavy rainfall and severe weather likely for portions of the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley on Wednesday...

The long-awaited return of active weather ended for the western US today
with the arrival of an upper-level trough and strong surface cold front
over the Pacific Northwest. This system is slated to bring low elevation
rain to the region while mixed precipitation and moderate to heavy snow is
expected at higher elevations over both the Washington and Oregon
Cascades. Following the eastward progression of the cold front, snow will
spread further inland during the overnight hours into the Northern Rockies
and Intermountain West. Snowfall accumulations are anticipated to remain
generally light to moderate in these areas, save for the tallest mountain
ranges of the Northern Rockies. Strong winds will accompany the gradually
strengthening cold front as it passes through the western states,
generating gusts up to 65 mph in some areas. Given the potential for these
wind gusts to blow down trees, knock out power lines, and reduce
visibility by blowing dust, a menagerie of High Wind Warnings, High Wind
Watches, and Wind Advisories have been raised over portions of California,
Nevada, and Arizona. Additionally, an influx of cooler air behind the
front will finally drop temperatures over the western US closer to normal
starting on Tuesday, providing residents of the coastal states some relief
from the recent string of record warmth.

Further east, upper-level ridging over the central US is expected to work
in tandem with high pressure at the surface over the eastern US to create
a favorable regime for the northward flow of warm air into the Great
Plains. Temperatures are forecast to skyrocket 15 to 25 degrees above
normal over the Southern High Plains and Central Plains on Tuesday, with
daily highs reaching the 60s and 70s. These high temperatures, in
combination with dry fuels, low relative humidity values, and gusty winds,
will generate critical fire weather concerns for the Southern High Plains
as well as southern New Mexico and Arizona on Tuesday. Meanwhile, less
severe elevated fire weather concerns will extend from western Texas to
southwest Kansas. Fire Weather Watches are currently in effect from
north/west Texas through central Kansas, while Red Flag Warnings are in
effect for portions of southwest Kansas, far eastern Kansas, and far
western Missouri. The arrival of cooler air over Arizona and western New
Mexico will serve to greatly reduce the fire weather risk in those areas
on Wednesday. However, lingering warmth over the Southern High Plains will
continue the critical risk of fire weather over the region into Wednesday.

Elsewhere, building high pressure over the eastern US will keep conditions
relatively quiet east of the Plains for the next 36 hours. On and off lake
effect snow showers driven by surface instability and a passing Canadian
cold front may produce light snow accumulations over areas adjacent to the
Great Lakes through Tuesday night. Furthermore, daily highs should remain
near or above normal for the eastern half of the country through Wednesday
with the exception of the Northeast, which will experience temperatures 10
to 15 degrees below normal on Tuesday. The tranquility is forecast to come
to an abrupt end on Wednesday with the development of heavy rain and
severe weather along and ahead of the aforementioned cold front as it
passes through the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley. According to the Storm Prediction Center the highest potential for
supercell and hail-generating thunderstorms lies in a Slight Risk area
encompassing northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and
northeast Louisiana. Much of the moderate to heavy rainfall associated
with this system is forecast to occur over a long southwest-northeast
oriented swath just to the north of the severe weather threat. With
accumulations of 1 to 2+ inches in 24 hours expected over some areas, the
Weather Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for Excessive
rainfall from eastern Oklahoma to southwest Illinois effective Wednesday
morning.

Zavadoff

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php