Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 15 2022 - 12Z Thu Feb 17 2022

...Strong cold front to produce gusty winds across the Central Great Basin
and Southwest today...

...Critical fire weather conditions forecast over the southern High Plains
and parts of the Southwest...

...Potential for disruptive snow and freezing rain extending northern
Oklahoma to central Michigan on Thursday...

...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible from the Southern Plains
to the Southeast beginning Wednesday night...

A deep upper-level trough and associated cold front currently pushing
through the Intermountain West is expected to spawn a plethora of weather
hazards over the next few days extending across the entire Lower 48. As
the system enters the Southwest today, gusty winds are forecast to impact
parts of the Central Great Basin, southern Nevada, Arizona, and
California. Wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible in the region, with the
potential for even higher gusts along the highest mountain ranges of
southern California. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect
to highlight the potential for strong crosswinds on roadways and isolated
tree damage.. Meanwhile, a burst of light to moderate snow is likely
behind the cold from the Intermountain West to the Northern Rockies,
before entering the Central Rockies and central High Plains on Wednesday.
Snowfall amounts could add up to over 6 inches in the higher terrain, with
lesser amounts throughout the lower elevations.

For the central U.S., strong southerly winds ahead of the approaching cold
front will allow for well above average temperatures to surge into the
Central Plains and Midwest today, with springlike temperatures expanding
into the eastern half of the Nation by Wednesday afternoon. Low relative
humidity and gusty winds will create conditions ripe for any new wildfires
to spread uncontrollably throughout the southern High Plains, as well as
parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico through at least Wednesday. Red
Flag Warnings have been issued and extend from Kansas to West Texas.
Additionally, dry conditions will also lead to dangerous wildfire
conditions in Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, and far southeast Arkansas
today.

By Wednesday night and into Thursday, the aforementioned upper-level
trough is forecast to eject into the Southern Plains and spawn an area of
low pressure near the Texas Panhandle with an expanding precipitation
shield found toward the northeast. At the same time, a slow moving cold
front is anticipated to bisect the country from the Great Lakes to the
Southern Plains. The precise location of this cold front as it sinks
southward on Thursday will be crucial to determining which locations see
significant snow, rain, or a wintry mix. At the moment, the greatest
chances for disruptive snow extends from south-central Kansas, through
northern Illinois, and into central Michigan. Areas of sleet and freezing
rain will likely be found just to the south of the heaviest axis of snow,
but rather high uncertainty remains regarding where exactly the transition
zone will set up. Residents are urged to stay tuned to the latest forecast
so quick preparations can be taken before the storm begins.

On the warm side of the system, rich atmospheric moisture rushing out of
the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley
will fuel conditions suitable for areas of heavy rain and the potential
for severe thunderstorms. As the advancing cold front clashes with the
warm and moist airmass Wednesday night, a line of thunderstorms may
develop across northern Texas and central Oklahoma. The potential exists
for storms to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated
tornadoes in this region and eventually into parts of Arkansas by early
Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
of severe thunderstorms for northern Texas, central/eastern Oklahoma, and
western Arkansas. The severe weather threat is expected to shift eastward
along the cold front and into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast into
Thursday night. With plenty of moisture to work with, the threat of heavy
rain also exists from parts of the Southern Plains to the Appalachians
through Thursday. There are expected to be two main modes of heavy
rainfall that may lead to flash flooding; the first is associated with
intense rainfall rates related to thunderstorms and the second is related
to widespread heavy rain along the strong cold front. Both are expected to
lead to isolated flooding concerns. Thunderstorm-induced heavy rain is
most likely across the southernmost affected areas, particularly from the
Southern Plains to the Southern Appalachians between Wednesday night and
Thursday night. Meanwhile,a few inches of rain could fall over the course
of a day or so from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower Great Lakes.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php