Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 16 2022 - 12Z Fri Feb 18 2022

...Heavy snow possible across parts of the central High Plains today...

...Potential for a swath of disruptive snow and freezing rain to extend
from northern Oklahoma to southern Michigan on Thursday...

...Severe thunderstorms possible from the Southern Plains to the Mid-South
beginning Wednesday night, while heavy rain may lead to isolated flash
flooding throughout the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Southern
Appalachians...

...Critical fire weather conditions forecast to continue across portions
of the southern High Plains today...

Over the next few days, a deep upper-level trough and its associated cold
front will continue to push south and east through the southwestern and
central U.S., producing a variety of hazardous weather types. In the near
term, this includes the potential for heavy snow over parts of the central
High Plains and strong winds across portions of New Mexico and West Texas.
Scattered snow showers are expected to slowly sink southward this morning
from the Northern Rockies and eventually become more widespread over the
central High Plains by tonight as the upper-level trough ejects into the
Southern Plains. Locally heavy snow, with amounts up to 8 inches, may
impact areas along the Front Range of Colorado. This includes Denver, CO
and surrounding regions, where Winter Storm Watches have been issued.
Minor accumulating snow is also anticipated across the Central Rockies
during this time frame. Farther south, strong southwesterly winds are
forecast ahead of an approaching cold front from southern New Mexico to
West Texas today. Maximum wind gusts may approach 75 mph here, which will
make travel difficult for high profile vehicles. High Wind Warnings and
Wind Advisories have been issued to highlight the potential hazard.
Additionally, the combination of gusty winds and low relative humidity
will lead to critical fire weather conditions throughout the southern High
Plains. Well above average temperatures will also surge ahead of the cold
front and into the eastern half of the Nation. This will also allow for
plenty of atmospheric moisture content to flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
and set the stage for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
beginning Wednesday night.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the Texas Panhandle
and Oklahoma by Thursday morning before tracking northeastward along an
attached cold front as it advances across the Mississippi Valley. As the
advancing cold front clashes with the warm and moist airmass Wednesday
night, a line of thunderstorms may develop across North Texas and
Oklahoma. The potential exists for storms to produce damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and isolated tornadoes in this region. The Storm Prediction
Center has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms
Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for North Texas and central to
eastern Oklahoma. The severe weather threat is expected to shift eastward
along the cold front and into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley,
Mid-South and Southeast on Thursday. With plenty of moisture to work with,
the threat of heavy rain also exists from parts of the Southern Plains to
the Appalachians through Thursday night. There are expected to be two main
modes of heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding; the first is
associated with intense rainfall rates related to thunderstorms and the
second is related to widespread heavy rain along the strong cold front.
Both are expected to lead to widely scattered flooding concerns.
Thunderstorm-induced heavy rain is most likely across the southernmost
affected areas, particularly from the southern Plains to the southern
Appalachians between Wednesday night and Thursday night. Farther north,
flood watches are in effect from portions of southern Missouri, central
Illinois, across much of Indiana into the eastern Great Lakes, where the
combination of longer duration heavy rain along with melting snow is
expected to cause flooding concerns. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall is in effect from southern Illinois to western New
York, as well as over parts of the Southern Appalachians on Thursday.
These areas are expected to have the greatest chances for scattered
instances of flash flooding.

On the cold side of the system, a swath of potentially heavy snow is
possible from northern Oklahoma to southern Michigan on Thursday, with
wintry weather also clipping the northern tip of Maine by Friday morning.
The location of the heaviest snowfall remains uncertain, but areas that do
see an extended period of heavy snow could experience snowfall rates over
2 inches per hour at times. Gusty winds will also accompany this system,
which will combine with snowfall to severely reduce visibility. A wintry
mix, including areas of sleet and freezing rain, will like fall just to
the south of the heaviest axis of snow. Winter Storms Watches are in
effect for the locations most likely to see significant snowfall or a
combination of snow and a wintry mix. This includes far northern Oklahoma,
eastern Kansas, northern-central Missouri, north-central Illinois,
northern Indiana, and southern Michigan.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php