Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 17 2022 - 00Z Sat Feb 19 2022

...Heavy snow possible across parts of the central High Plains and Rockies
this evening; Critical Fire Weather and High Winds in the southern High
Plains this afternoon and evening...

...Disruptive snow and ice accumulations to extend from the south-central
Plains to southern Michigan on Thursday...

...Severe weather to occur from the Southern Plains to the Mid-South
beginning tonight; heavy rain may lead to areas of flooding throughout the
Mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valleys, eastern Great Lakes, and Southern
Appalachians...

A dynamic storm system is set to develop from the Southern Plains to the
Northeast. Tonight, a deep upper-level trough continues to push south and
east through the Southwest producing locally heavy snowfall and strong
winds. The regions most likely to witness heavy snow tonight are the
Rockies and central High Plains with snow totals up to a foot possible in
the higher elevations of Colorado, New Mexico, and eastern Arizona.
Periods of snow are also expected this evening around the Denver metro
area where disruptive snowfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected.
Farther south, strong winds are likely across southern New Mexico and West
Texas where High Wind Warnings have been issued for wind gusts that could
reach 65 mph. In addition to the high winds, blowing dust may cause
reduced visibilities and make for hazardous travel conditions. This
combination of blustery winds, low humidity levels, and dry fuels are ripe
for dangerous fire weather conditions. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued a Critical Risk for fire weather today throughout the southern High
Plains and into the higher elevations of eastern New Mexico and West
Texas. The threat for fire weather extends farther south along the Rio
Grande Valley on Thursday where a Critical Risk for fire weather has been
issued.

As the upper level trough exits the Southern Rockies this evening, a
strengthening area of low pressure will result in blossoming areas of
precipitation along and behind a cold front stretching from the Great
Lakes to Texas. Along this cold front, a clashing of a warm and moist
air-mass overrunning a surging cold and dry Canadian air-mass will result
in a myriad of hazardous weather. On the north and west flank of this
developing storm system, periods of heavy snow will envelope the
south-central Plains Thursday morning and track into the Middle
Mississippi Valley around midday. Eventually, the swath of heavy snow
reaches the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon and evening. The latest
snowfall forecast calls for a broad swath of 6 to 8 inches of snow from
southern Kansas to southern Michigan with the highest probabilities of
totals exceeding 8 inches located from northern Missouri to northwest
Indiana. Hourly snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour are possible, which
combined with gusty winds causing reduced visibilities will make for
treacherous travel conditions. Closer to the front itself, temperatures
aloft will be too warm for snow but cold enough at the surface to cause an
icy wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain. Ice accumulations up to a tenth
of an inch are possible in parts of central Missouri and the Lower Great
Lakes. Slick roads and sidewalks are likely with even some power outages
and downed trees limbs possible.

In the storm's warm sector, located south and east of the cold front,
heavy rainfall is anticipated from southern Missouri and Illinois to the
eastern Great Lakes. Highly anomalous moisture content for mid February is
responsible for rainfall totals that could range between 1.5 to 3 inches
in these areas. As a result, a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been
issued for Thursday. Flood Watches have been issued in these areas in
response to the growing hydrologic concerns for flooding tonight into
Thursday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is also in place for
portions of the Southern Appalachians where locally heavy rainfall rates
could lead to flooding issues Thursday night. Farther south, the
atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable and more suitable for severe
storms. The first round of severe weather begins tonight in Oklahoma and
North Texas. A Slight Risk (risk level 2/5) has been posted for these
areas due to the threat for thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes. By Thursday, the threat for severe weather
moves east into the Mid-South where an Enhanced Risk (risk level 3/5) is
in place over western Tennessee, northern and central Mississippi, and
northwest Alabama. The primary concerns are tornadoes and destructive high
winds with a chance for some storms to produce hail as well.

Fortunately, this storm system is a fast mover as it will race into
northern New England by Friday. A wet Friday morning rush hour is on tap
up and down the East Coast with the lone exception being central and south
Florida. A quick changeover to snow is possible as the cold front tracks
through the Northeast, but totals will be light due to the storm's
progressive nature. Meanwhile, an Alberta Clipper brings a quick hitting
round of snow to parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes on
Friday with relatively light accumulations expected.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php