Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 17 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 19 2022

...Quick burst of heavy snow to extend from northern Oklahoma to southern
Michigan today, with wintry weather also possible across far northern and
western New York as well as northern Maine into Friday morning...

...Threat of severe thunderstorms exists from the Lower Mississippi Valley
to the Tennessee Valley through this evening, while flash flooding is
possible throughout much of the Ohio Valley and Interior Northeast...

...A bitter cold airmass is found across the Upper Midwest and Northern
Plains ahead of an approaching clipper system that may produce blizzard
conditions on Friday...

A dynamic winter storm is developing over the Southern Plains this morning
and set to produce a plethora of weather hazards throughout the central
and eastern U.S. through early Friday. At the surface, an area of low
pressure is forecast to strengthen over eastern Oklahoma before racing
northeastward this afternoon along an attached cold front. This frontal
boundary has led to a very sharp temperature gradient that separates a
cold airmass to the north and a warm/moist airmass to the south, which
will help produce a blossoming area of precipitation that includes snow,
sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Meanwhile, as the system progresses
eastward a separate cold front to the south will spark numerous showers
and thunderstorms.

Starting with the cold side of the system, a thin stripe of heavy snow is
likely to fall from northern Oklahoma to central Illinois by this
afternoon. This quick-hitting burst of snow is then expected to enter
parts of northern Indiana, southern Michigan, and far northwest Ohio by
the late afternoon/early evening hours. Snowfall rates exceeding 2 inches
per hour and gusty winds could severely reduce visibility at times in
these regions, with the heaviest snowfall amounts likely around 6 to 8
inches from eastern Kansas to southern Michigan. Meanwhile, areas of sleet
and freezing rain are likely just to the south of the heaviest snowfall.
This includes regions from central Missouri to Ohio. Elsewhere, wintry
weather is also forecast to filter into parts of far western and northern
New York as cold air enters behind the slow-moving cold front. The
northern tip of Maine also falls under the same forecast, with these areas
receiving rain at first before changing to snow. Winter Storm Warnings and
Winter Weather Advisories span over 1,500 miles from western Oklahoma to
northern Maine. Snowfall is expected to quickly end over the Midwest by
this evening and northern Maine by Friday afternoon as the low pressure
system exits into the Canadian Maritimes.

On the warm side of the system, a cold front racing eastward from the
Southern Plains has already sparked a line of thunderstorms over northern
Texas this morning. This cold front and associated threat of severe
weather is anticipated to shift eastward throughout today and produce the
potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. The Storm
Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
thunderstorms for today that includes northern/central Mississippi,
western/northern Alabama, western/middle Tennessee, and far eastern
Arkansas. Residents are urged to have multiple ways to receive warnings
and plan ahead. Farther north, an anomalously warm and moist airmass by
mid-February standards will create conditions capable for periods of heavy
rain along and just to the south of a frontal boundary that extends from
the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes. Rainfall amounts around 1
to 2 inches are expected in this region, with locally higher amounts. The
combination of frozen soil and melting snow will exacerbate flooding
concerns throughout the Ohio Valley and Interior Northeast through
tonight. Flood Watches and a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
has been issued for the aforementioned stretch of the country.
Additionally, strong southerly winds ahead of the system could become
hazardous at time from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley. Wind gusts up to
50 mph could lead to power outages where trees have been weakened by
recent ice storms, as well as hazardous travel conditions for high profile
vehicles. Gusty winds are also possible throughout parts of southern New
England, where gusts could reach as high as 65 mph tonight. Not to be
outdone, gusty winds could also combine with low relative humidity to
create critical fire weather conditions for the Rio Grande Valley of South
Texas today. Red Flag Warnings have been issued to highlight the potential
hazard.

Farther north, a frigid airmass in place over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest has led to low temperatures into the minus teens this
morning. Combined with blustery winds and wind chills could feel as cold
as 40 below zero. Wind Chill Advisories are in effect for much of North
Dakota, northeast South Dakota, and northern Minnesota. By tonight, a
clipper system entering the Northern Plains will spread the potential for
light snow into parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Snow showers
and snow squalls are then expected to enter the Great Lakes region and
parts of the Midwest by Friday. Gusty winds behind the system could lead
to widespread blowing snow and blizzard conditions for eastern North
Dakotas and northwest Minnesota, where Winter Storm Watches have been
issued.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php