Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 19 2022 - 00Z Mon Feb 21 2022

...Low-pressure system will bring blizzard conditions to parts of the
northern Plains and Great Lakes region on Friday before moving into the
interior Northeast on Saturday...

...Next storm system arrives in the Pacific Northwest bringing heavy snow,
gusty winds, and bitterly cold temperatures...

...Tranquil conditions and warmer temperatures across the South...

The potent storm system that has brought heavy rain, severe thunderstorms,
snow, and strong winds across a large portion of the country, has finally
moved out to sea. In its wake, gusty winds may persist along coastal
sections of the Northeast with wind gusts up to 45 mph, before subsiding
during the Friday evening hours. Temperatures across the region should
remain below average throughout the weekend before more spring-like warmth
arrives on Monday.

Meanwhile, another strong low-pressure system will move through the
northern Plains and Great Lakes regions during the Friday afternoon and
evening hours before progressing through the interior Northeast on
Saturday. With frigid air in place from the antecedent cold front, light
to moderate snow in tandem with strong wind gusts up to 65 mph have
resulted in Blizzard Warnings in northern North Dakota, Minnesota, and the
UP of Michigan. Widespread blowing snow will significantly reduce
visibility and make travel extremely treacherous. However, along and
behind the cold front, narrow bands of snow squalls are likely to move
rapidly from northwest to southeast. These bands will be accompanied by
heavy snowfall rates of 1"/hour or more, gusty winds which may exceed 50
mph, and extremely limited visibility. This heavy snow and wind
combination will likely create dangerous travel and slippery roads and may
impact the evening rush hour for several major cities including Duluth,
Minneapolis, Green Bay, and Chicago. The potential for snow squalls shifts
into the Northeast on Saturday with similar impacts such as heavy snow,
strong wind gusts and reduced visibilities possible.

Farther west, the next weather maker to impact the western and central
U.S. arrives on Saturday as an upper trough dives south into the Northwest
U.S. late Saturday into Sunday. A Pacific low pressure system will
introduce periods of coastal/valley rain and heavy mountain snow to the
Pacific Northwest on Saturday. As the upper trough arrives in the
Northwest on Sunday, periods of snow will persist in the Cascades and
northern Rockies. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Washington
and Oregon Cascades, as well as the Blue Mountains of Washington and
Oregon, through Sunday evening due to the potential for snowfall totals
ranging between 12 and 18 inches. Snow will break out across the northern
Rockies and High Plains as an Arctic front moves south into the North
Central U.S. on Sunday. In addition to snow, temperatures will take a nose
dive in Montana where apparent temperatures will go from the low-mid 50s
in eastern Montana Saturday afternoon, to being subzero by Sunday
afternoon. This Arctic front will be responsible for the return of frigid
temperatures throughout the northern High Plains and Upper Midwest next
week.

In contrast, the warmest and most tranquil weather will be focused across
the southern tier of the U.S. This is due to a series of high pressure
systems located over the Deep South and into the Southwest. Although parts
of the Southeast and Mid-South will start the first half of the weekend on
the seasonally cold side, most locations in these regions will rebound to
milder levels by Sunday. The warmest temperature anomalies will be focused
in the north-central Plains where they look to range between 10 and 20
degrees above normal.

Russell/Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php