Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 302 AM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 20 2022 - 12Z Tue Feb 22 2022 ...Significant winter storm impacting areas of the Plains into the Great Lakes on Monday into Tuesday... ...Heavy snow for the Cascades Sunday into Tuesday... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over the Northern Tier States by Monday morning; In contrast, temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average over Central/Southern High Plains... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys on Monday into Tuesday morning... A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes across the Northern Plains then northwestward across the Northern High Plains into Western Canada will move eastward to Northern New England and southward to the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes by Monday evening/Tuesday morning. The system will produce light snow along the U. S./Canadian border from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Great Lakes and some windy conditions on Sunday into Sunday afternoon. Therefore, blizzard warnings are up over Northeastern North Dakota and Northwestern Minnesota through 6 PM local time. By Sunday evening, the snow will end over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. In the meantime, weak onshore flow and upper-level energy will produce coastal rain and higher elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest. The snow will be a multiple-day heavy snow event for the Cascades. Incidental, temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average over Central/Southern High Plains. These warm temperatures, combined with gusty wind and dry conditions, will create elevated to critical fire weather concerns Sunday and Monday, especially across the Central/Southern High Plains. Moreover, very cold high pressure over West-Central Canada will bring Temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below average over the Northern Tier States by Monday into Tuesday morning, with several locations having record-breaking or tied low temperatures. The upper-level energy and record-breaking cold will produce a significant winter storm impacting areas of the Plains into the Great Lakes starting Sunday. A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain may create hazardous travel conditions. Snow will expand across the Plains and Upper Midwest Monday, becoming heavy at times. Increasing wind may create blowing and drifting snow, making travel difficult. Total snowfall amounts may exceed six inches from Northern South Dakota eastward. By Tuesday, an area of sleet and rain/freezing rain will lift into the Great Lakes region, with significant ice accumulations possible. Very cold air will follow in the system's wake, with temperatures near record low values Tuesday for the Plains. Meanwhile, as the cold front moves southward over the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, moisture will pool along the boundary aiding in the development of showers and thunderstorms; some thunderstorms will be severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys on Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall associated with these thunderstorms just to the north of the Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Ohio Valley on Monday into Tuesday morning. Ziegenfelder Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php