Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 22 2022 - 00Z Thu Feb 24 2022

...A Major Winter Storm will produce a variety of widespread impacts early
this week from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, southward across
the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern
Plains...

...Heavy Snows likely from portions of the Northern Plains, Upper
Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes...

...Significant icing possible across portions of the Upper Mississippi
Valley into the Lower Great Lakes, portions of New England and portions of
the Southern Plains...

...Heavy Rains, Flash Flooding and Severe Weather possible from portions
of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and
Ohio Valley...

...A Strong Arctic Front will bring Much Below Average Temperatures to the
Plains over the next two days, while much above average temperatures are
on tap from the Southern Plains eastward to the East Coast...

...Numerous Record Cold and Warm temperatures possible over the next few
days on either side of the strong arctic front...


A highly impactful major winter storm will affect large portion of the
nation over the next two days. The combination of a strong arctic front
separating much below average temperatures over the mid section of the
nation and much above average temperature across Mississippi Valley and
Ohio Valley, along with strong upper level energy moving northeastward
from the Southern Plains toward the Great Lakes will set the stage for
what will be the first of two highly impactful winter storms to affect the
U.S. this week.  Heavy snows are likely through Tuesday from the Northern
Plains into the Upper Great Lakes, while to the south of this, significant
ice accumulations are possible from portions of the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Mid West into the Lower Great Lakes and portions of northern New
England. 

At the same time, thunderstorms will develop Monday night over the
Southern Plains and spread northeastward on Tuesday into the Lower
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.  These thunderstorms
have the potential to produce heavy rains, flash flooding and severe
weather across these areas.  The greatest risk of flash flooding will be
across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys that have had above
average precipitation over the past week.

The strong arctic front responsible for much of this active weather will
also bring sharply colder temperatures into the Central and Southern
Plains over the next two days.  Regions of the Central to Southern Plains
from Kansas into central Texas that will see highs in the 70s and 80s on
Monday, will have highs in the 20s and 30s Tuesday and Wednesday, a drop
of 40 to 50 degrees.  The very strong temperature contrast on either side
of the arctic front will support the potential for numerous record cold
and warm temperatures over the next two days.  Record cold temperatures
are possible across large sections of the Plains into the Northern
Rockies, Pacific Northwest and portions of California. Meanwhile on the
warm side of the front,  record warm night time lows and afternoon highs
are possible from the Southern Plains, across the Lower Mississippi
Valley, Southeast and Northeast.  In addition to bringing much below
average temperatures into the Plains over the next two days, strong winds
and dry conditions will pose a fire weather risk for the Southern High
Plains early this week.

While most of the high impact weather is slated for the mid to eastern
portions of the nation over the next two days, some much needed
precipitation is possible for portions of California, the Southwest and
Great Basin.  Lower elevations rains and heavy mountain snows are possible
across these regions.  These regions have been dry over the past month
with precipitation totals well below average.  These regions remain in
Severe to Extreme drought. 

By Wednesday much of the impacts from the first storm will be winding
down.  However, a second storm is likely to develop over the Southern
Plains on Wednesday and spread additional high impact weather conditions
northeastward into the later portions of the week across many of the same
areas that received effects from the first storm.


Oravec

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php