Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 23 2022 - 00Z Fri Feb 25 2022

...Significant winter storm impacting areas of the Great Lakes into the
Northeast into Wednesday morning...

...Risk of Excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms increasing from the
Lower Mississippi to Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into Wednesday...

...Another significant winter storm impacting areas of West, Southern
Plains, Ohio Valley, & Northeast on Wednesday and Thursday...

...Well below average to record cold over portions of the North and West,
with well above average/record warmth over portions of the East...

An upper level trough will persist across the Northern Plains and West. 
This pattern will lead to persistent, at times record cold across the
West/Northern Plains under its base Wednesday and Thursday and
occasionally record warmth (like on Wednesday), across portions of the
East.  Unsettled conditions will be favored from the West through the
Mid-South, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast.

A low pressure system will move northeastward to Eastern Canada, while the
associated front moves off the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast by
Wednesday evening, leading to a cool down. The storm will produce a
significant winter storm impacting areas of the Great Lakes to Northern
New England. Additional snowfall may exceed 6 inches, bringing event-total
snowfall towards two feet in some areas. Moderate to heavy snow combined
with strong winds gusting over 30 mph will create periodic near blizzard
conditions with considerable blowing and drifting snow; travel is
discouraged. Periods of sleet and freezing rain will lift across northern
Maine Tuesday night. Ice accumulations exceeding one-tenth of an inch are
is expect which will create hazardous travel and isolated power outages.

Ahead of the invading front over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast,
moisture will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms; some
thunderstorms could be severe during Tuesday evening. SPC has a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms in that area. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.  A threat of excessive rainfall is also
associated with these thunderstorms.  The threat of severe thunderstorms
and flash flooding will continue on Wednesday into Thursday over parts of
the Mid-South and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. A Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall has been depicted in these areas. The heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas the most
vulnerable.

Meanwhile, an upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest moves southward
to the Great Basin/Southern California by Wednesday morning, then moves
eastward to the Southern Rockies by Thursday. The system will produce snow
that moves east of the Rockies into parts of the Central/Southern High
Plains, Midwest, and northern Mid-Atlantic states Wednesday into Thursday,
with a glaze of freezing rain/ice expected for portions of the Southern
Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley and portions of the Ohio Valley and the
central Mid-Atlantic states.  Significant ice accumulations are likely,
with damaging ice possible in the Ozarks. In addition, modest snowfall
accumulations are also possible. As a result, hazardous travel conditions
and impacts to infrastructure are becoming more likely. Details in the
track and timing of the storm and precipitation type and amounts may
evolve further as we move closer to the event.  

Roth

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php