Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 23 2022 - 12Z Fri Feb 25 2022

...Significant winter storm impacting the Southern Plains to the Ohio
Valley on Wednesday into Thursday night then the Northeast Thursday night
into Friday...

...Risk of Excessive rainfall from the Lower Mississippi to Tennessee
Valleys through Thursday morning and over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley on
Thursday into Friday morning...

...A Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern Rockies
through Thursday morning...

...Temperatures will be 20 to 40 degrees below average over the
Northern/Central Rockies, Plains, and the Mississippi Valley; In contrast,
temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average over East Coast...

By Thursday morning, a storm over the Southwest will move eastward to the
Southern Rockies. On Thursday, the storm will redevelop over the Tennessee
Valley and move northeastward to the Central Appalachians/ Mid-Atlantic by
Friday. The storm will produce heavy snow over the Southwest and Central
Rockies on Wednesday, with light rain over parts of Southern California
and rain at lower elevations of the Southwest. Furthermore, strong wind
and dry fuels will produce conditions favorable for a Critical Risk of
fire weather over parts of the Southern Rockies through Thursday morning.

Moreover, as the storm moves out of the Southern Rockies, the system will
bring a variety of winter hazards from the Southern Plains through the
Ohio Valley Wednesday through Thursday night and the Northeast Thursday
night through Friday. Damaging ice accumulations across the Ozarks up to
0.50 inches leading to power outages and tree damage are possible. This
ice is within a swath of notable accumulations of freezing rain and sleet
expected from North Texas through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Overnight
Thursday, heavy snow will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley into the Great Lakes. As the system moves to the Central
Appalachians/ Mid-Atlantic on Friday morning, heavy snow will develop over
parts of the Northeast into Southern New England. Widespread amounts
greater than 6 inches are likely. Another rain/freezing rain area is
likely from the Eastern Ohio Valley through the Central Appalachians.
Significant ice accumulations are possible across south-central
Pennsylvania and western Maryland. Prepare now for this major winter
storm. Widespread hazardous travel and damage to the power infrastructure
are expected.

Additional impacts will be temperatures 20 to 40 degrees below average
over the Northern/Central Rockies, Plains, and the Mississippi Valley. As
a result, several locations will have record-breaking or tied low
temperatures. In contrast, temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above
average over most of the East Coast, with several locations having
record-breaking or tied high temperatures from Tuesday into Wednesday
morning.

In the meantime, a cold front extending from the Northeast southwestward
to the Southern Plains will have a strong stream of moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico and overruns the front producing heavy rain over Lower
Mississippi and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with heavy rain over parts of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through Thursday morning. The heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. On Thursday, the excessive
rainfall threat moves eastward and expands as heavy rain moves into the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall with heavy rain over parts of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley on Thursday into Friday morning. The heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the rain will continue from the
Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys into the Western Gulf Coast overnight
Thursday into Friday.

Lastly, upper-level energy moving southward from Western Canada will move
over the Pacific Northwest early Thursday morning and the Central Rockies
by Friday. For Thursday, the energy will produce light snow over parts of
the Pacific Northwest down to the coast and inland to the Northern
Rockies. Overnight Thursday, the light snow moves into the Central Rockies.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php