Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 24 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 26 2022

...Significant winter storm impacting the Southern Plains to the Ohio
Valley on Thursday into late Thursday night then the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon into Friday...

...a Slight Risk of Excessive rainfall from the Tennessee and Ohio Valley
on through Friday morning...

...Temperatures will be 15 to 35 degrees below average over the
Northern/Central Rockies, Plains, and the Mississippi Valley; In contrast,
temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above average over the Southeast...

By Thursday afternoon, a storm over the South Rockies will move eastward
to western Texas. Then the storm will redevelop over the Tennessee Valley
and move northeastward to the Ohio Valley/Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic by Friday. The storm will move off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday evening. On Thursday morning, the upper-level
system will produce snow over the Southwest/Great Basin and Central
Rockies. The snow will end over the area by the late afternoon.

Moreover, as the storm moves out of the Southern Rockies, the system will
bring a variety of winter hazards from the Southern Plains through the
Ohio Valley Thursday through Friday morning and the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. Damaging ice accumulations
across the Ozarks up to 0.50 inches leading to power outages and tree
damage are possible. This ice is within a swath of notable accumulations
of rain/freezing rain and sleet expected from North Texas through the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. Overnight Thursday, the heavy snow will develop
over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, moving
into the Northeast early Friday morning. As the system proceeds to the
Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic on Friday morning, heavy snow will
develop over parts of the Northeast into Southern New England. Widespread
amounts greater than 6 inches of snow are likely. Another rain/freezing
rain area is expected from the Eastern Ohio Valley through the Central
Appalachians. Significant ice accumulations are possible across
south-central Pennsylvania and western Maryland. Prepare now for this
major winter storm. Widespread hazardous travel and damage to the power
infrastructure are expected.

Additional impacts will be temperatures 15 to 35 degrees below average
over the Northern/Central Rockies, Plains, and the Mississippi Valley. As
a result, several locations will have record-breaking or tied low
temperatures. In contrast, temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above
average over the Southeast, with several sites having record-breaking or
tied high temperatures from Thursday into Friday morning.

In the meantime, the associated cold front extending from the Southeast to
the Central Gulf Coast will have a strong stream of moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico that overruns the front producing heavy rain over Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
with heavy rain over parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through
Friday morning. The heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
Furthermore, the rain will continue from the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi
Valleys into the Western Gulf Coast overnight Thursday into Friday morning.

Lastly, upper-level energy moving southward from Western Canada will move
over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday morning and to the Central Rockies
by Saturday. For Thursday, the energy will produce light snow over parts
of the Pacific Northwest down to sea level and inland to the Northern
Rockies. Overnight Thursday, the light snow moves into the Central Rockies
and ends by Saturday. On Friday afternoon, moisture will surge into
southern Texas, producing rain through Saturday.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php