Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EST Tue Mar 01 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 02 2022 - 00Z Fri Mar 04 2022

...Heavy precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest continues
to wane but unsettled weather will persist across the area through
midweek...

...Above normal temperatures will expand eastward into the eastern U.S.
but cold conditions with periods of light snow remain across the northern
tier...

Afternoon satellite and radar imagery show the Pacific moisture plume
responsible for heavy rain and winter weather over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and the northern Rockies continues to flow onshore, albeit in a
weakened state. The forecast for a lowering excessive rainfall risk
looking toward midweek remains on track, although isolated instances of
flash flooding are possible today in western Oregon/southwest Washington
where a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall resides. Although the flash
flood threat is expected to end by tomorrow morning, unsettled weather
should remain overhead through midweek as remnant low pressure offshore
will continue to direct moisture toward the coast.  Meanwhile, a frontal
boundary is forecast to slide slowly across the Pacific Northwest to reach
northern California by Thursday morning, bringing another shot of rain and
modest high elevation snow into the region. East of the Rockies, yet
another Arctic cold front will support snow and wintry precipitation
chances over the Northern Plains beginning Wednesday, although generally
limited impacts are anticipated for this event as of now. The same front
will further spread snows across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and New
England Wednesday-Thursday, with limited to localized minor impacts from
snow accumulations possible.

Ahead of the front, Spring-like temps are in store for much of the CONUS,
as Daytime highs are forecast to climb 10-30 above normal across most
places from the central and southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast today and Wednesday. A few daily high temperature records could
fall in the central Plains and Southwest by the end of the work week.
Eventually, the aforementioned Arctic air mass should surge south out of
the Upper-Midwest by Thursday  and temporarily end the warm weather for
the northern half of the CONUS. Strong southerly flow should arrive in
time for the weekend, however, to usher in above average temperatures once
again over the Plains, Southeast, and Midwest.


Asherman/Kong

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php