Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 PM EST Wed Mar 02 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 03 2022 - 00Z Sat Mar 05 2022

...Wintry mix will move across the Northeast through tomorrow morning
while persisting across the Northwest to Northern Plains...

...Above normal temperatures continue from the Great Basin to the
Southeast, with fire weather conditions worsening in the High Plains...

...Cooler temperatures, lower elevation rain, and mountain snow move into
California, the Southwest, and Great Basin Friday...

A low pressure system will continue to move across the Northeast through
tomorrow morning as an arctic air mass spreads southward behind a trailing
cold front from the Northern Plains to the Midwest and northern
Mid-Atlantic. Snow accumulations should generally remain between 1-2
inches, except in the Adirondacks were locally higher totals are possible.
Meanwhile, rain and snow showers will continue over the Pacific Northwest
and Northern Rockies as a lingering low pressure system moves slowly
southward and a moisture plume from the Pacific penetrates further inland
through northern Idaho and northwestern Montana across the arctic front. 
Farther east, periods of light snow are expected across the Northern
Plains as low pressure waves form along the arctic front and move toward
the east. Snow accumulations showed generally remain light here as well,
with totals of a few inches confined to the higher mountain elevations of
the northern Cascades and Rockies and locations along the Canadian border
in the Northern Plains. A light glaze of freezing rain, up to 0.1 inches,
is also possible from eastern Montana into the Dakotas as warmer air aloft
overrides the arctic front.

In contrast with the wintry conditions across the norther tier, abnormally
warm Spring-like temperatures are forecast from the Great Basin to the
Southeast Thursday, with widespread high temperatures in the 70s. The warm
weather becomes more focused Friday over the Plains with highs into the
low 80s, up to 25 degrees above normal for this time of year. The warm
temperatures combined with increasingly drier air and windy conditions as
a lee trough and eventual dryline move through the High Plains will lead
to increasing fire weather conditions. The Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted an Elevated Risk of fire weather conditions for Thursday
across portions of northeastern New Mexico, the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles, southeastern Colorado, and southwestern Kansas. A Critical
Risk has been highlighted for Friday across eastern New Mexico.

Finally, a cold upper trough off the West Coast is forecast to move onto
the West Coast as the low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest also
continues southward.  This system will bring increasingly unsettled
weather into California by Thursday evening and spread eastward into the
Great Basin and Southwest Friday. Highs in the 60s along the coast and
across the Great Basin and into the 80s in the Desert Southwest Thursday
will drop 10 to 20 degrees behind an eastward moving Pacific front Friday.
Lower elevation rain and mountain snow will also continue to spread
eastward, with thunderstorms possible along the southern California Coast.

Putnam/Kong


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php