Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EST Thu Mar 03 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 04 2022 - 00Z Sun Mar 06 2022

...Dynamic system to produce wintry weather and thunderstorms over the
Northern Plains and Midwest this weekend...

...Warm weather continues over the Great Basin to the Southeast, with fire
weather conditions worsening in the Southwest/Plains...

...Cooler temperatures, lower elevation rain, and mountain snow move into
California, the Southwest, and Great Basin tonight...

Fairly quiet weather remains over the Lower 48 this afternoon. High
pressure is nestled over the Northern Plains with a cool continental
airmass overhead the upper half of the CONUS, in contrast to the
widespread warmth of yesterday. However, Spring-like temperatures will
make a quick return over areas north of the front in the central and
eastern U.S. as the cool airmass moderates and warm southerly flow gets
re-established today. By this weekend, well above average daytime highs in
the 70's-80's should be commonplace from the Mid-Atlantic into the
Southern Plains, which could threaten some daily high temperature records
Friday and Saturday over the Central Plains and Southeast. The period of
warm weather will also support favorable fire weather conditions over the
Plains and Southwest today into this weekend, where SPC highlights an
Elevated (level 1/3) and Critical (level 2/3) risk of fire weather
conditions today and tomorrow, respectively.

Meanwhile, west of the Rockies, a cool Pacific airmass is forecast to
descend south and east over the Great Basin this weekend, in turn
supporting mild high temperatures in the 40's-high 50's alongside
unsettled weather. By Saturday, up to a foot of snow is possible over
mountain peaks in the Sierra, with a rain in the lower elevations. The
unsettled conditions will migrate east Saturday and snow will pickup
intensity across the Rockies before the associated surface wave deepens
and spreads into the Front Range, Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Snow
will remain modest for the Plains and Upper Midwest, with totals likely to
range between 3-6 inches on Saturday. Parts of northern Wisconsin and
Michigan's Upper Peninsula may experience freezing rain up to a tenth of
an inch during this period so at least some weekend travel impacts are
likely. In the warm sector of the developing surface low, strong moisture
return ahead of an approaching front and dryline will support showers and
thunderstorms over the Midwest/Central Mississippi Valley, some of which
may be severe on Saturday per SPC. Some localized heavy rainfall totals
are possible with any thunderstorms that form, although no widespread
excessive rainfall threat is expected as of now.


Asherman/Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php