Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EST Fri Mar 04 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 04 2022 - 12Z Sun Mar 06 2022

...Dynamic system to produce wintry weather and thunderstorms over the
Northern Plains and Midwest this weekend...

...Potential for record breaking warmth across parts of the East on
Sunday-Monday, with fire weather conditions worsening in the Southwest and
Southern/Central Plains this weekend...

...Cooler temperatures, lower elevation rain, and mountain snow move into
California, the Southwest, and Great Basin today...


A surface wave, currently moving across the Front Range, will develop into
a dynamic low pressure system this weekend. A warm front associated with
this low will continue to pump warm air into the Great Plains and
Southeast today before expanding into the Midwest on Saturday and East on
Sunday. A dryline will develop within this warm airmass, extending down
through the Southern Plains. This paired with windy surface conditions
will produce a critical fire weather risk across parts of southern-eastern
New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle, southeast Colorado and much of
Kansas this weekend. As the low pressure system deepens on Saturday, the
threat for thunderstorm activity will increase over portions of the
Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Some areas, particularly over Iowa and the
rest of the Upper Midwest, may experience severe weather in the form of
supercells capable of producing damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail.

As the dynamic Front Range system strengthens over the next 48 hours it
will generate a swath of light to moderate snowfall over the Northern
Plains to the Upper Midwest. There will be a chance for accumulating
freezing rain over parts of the Upper Midwest extending from southern
Minnesota through northern Wisconsin and into the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan this weekend. Some isolated areas may see over a quarter of an
inch of ice. Weekend travel precautions are advised. High pressure on the
backside of this system will reintroduce frigid air into the
Northern/Central Plains on Saturday and Sunday, with highs likely to be
between 20-30 degrees below average in many places. Troughing in the west
will produce moderate to heavy mountain snow for parts of the Sierra,
Great Basin and Central/Southern Rockies this weekend. Low elevation rain
is expected for these regions as well. The warm airmass centered over the
central part of the country today will expand eastward this weekend before
settling over the East on Sunday and Monday. Record high and low
temperatures may be tied or broken as a result.


Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php