Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EST Sat Mar 05 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 05 2022 - 12Z Mon Mar 07 2022

...Dynamic system to produce multiple impactful weather hazards this
weekend from significant icing in the Upper Midwest to thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest...

...There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
over portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley on Saturday and over the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley on Sunday...

...Record-breaking warmth across parts of the East Saturday-Monday, with
Critical Risk of fire weather over the Southern Plains through Sunday...

A pair of shortwaves rotating through an upper-level trough will be the
driving force behind this weekend's main weather hazards. An area of low
pressure over the Central Plains will intensify today as it moves into the
Upper Midwest. Moderate to heavy snow will fall on its backside over parts
of the Central Great Basin, Intermountain West and Central Rockies today.
A swath of light to moderate snow will expand from the Front Range to the
Upper Midwest as the surface low tracks north and eastward. Freezing rain
will be the main concern within the transition zone between snow and rain
across parts of southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Michigan's
Upper Peninsula where ice accumulations may exceed a quarter of an inch by
Sunday morning. Ice Storm Warnings are in effect for much of northern
Wisconsin and the western U.P. as a result.

Severe weather, fire weather and potential record breaking temperatures
will be a concern within the warm sector of this dynamic system. A well
defined warm front will lift northward across the Midwest and Northeast
through Sunday. This will allow for anomalously warm and moist air to
follow and expand across the eastern half of the country. This will lead
to widespread temperature records being tied or broken across much of the
East through Monday. High temperatures are forecast to range between 20-30
degrees above average during this period. This warm and moist airmass will
also interact with a strong cold front driving south through the central
U.S. leading to the threat of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
across parts of the Mississippi Valley and Midwest over the next couple of
days. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms for much of Iowa, northern Missouri, northwestern Illinois
and southwestern Wisconsin for today. Large hail, a few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts will be the main concern for these areas today. As the
cold front drives farther south on Sunday, so will the focus for severe
storms. Slight Risks of Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall are in
effect for parts of the ArkLaTex, much of Arkansas, southern
Missouri/Illinois/Indiana, and western Kansas/Tennessee, where the threat
of heavy rainfall and a few tornadoes will be the main concern. A dryline
will develop across the Southern Plains today and persist through at least
Monday morning. These dry conditions combined with warm air and gusty
winds thanks to the deep area of low pressure to the north will contribute
to a Critical Fire Weather area for parts of the Texas panhandle and
central Oklahoma/Kansas. The threat for Critical Fire Weather will retreat
back into eastern New Mexico and western Texas by Sunday. High pressure
will expand across the West over the coming days leading to a cooldown,
especially for parts of the Front Range where high temperatures will be
between 20-30 degrees below normal.


Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php