Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EST Sat Mar 05 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 06 2022 - 00Z Tue Mar 08 2022

...Dynamic storm system to produce areas of significant freezing rain and
heavy snow over the Upper Great Lakes tonight, with severe thunderstorms
possible in parts of the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley this evening, and
gusty winds from the Midwest to the Great Lakes on Sunday...

...Next system to enter the central U.S. late Sunday to spread the
potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding from eastern
Oklahoma to the Ohio Valley, with light snow extending from parts of the
Midwest to the Great Lakes by Monday morning...

...Moderate to heavy snow forecast across the Central/Southern Rockies
through Monday...

...Record-breaking warmth expected throughout parts of the East on Sunday
and Monday, while Critical Fire Weather remains over the Southern High
Plains on Sunday...


The driving forces behind the active weather pattern located throughout
much of the Nation is associated with a deep upper-level trough positioned
over the western U.S. and strong upper-level ridging  over the Southeast.
Within the aforementioned upper-level trough, two separate shortwaves and
mid-level lows will aid in spawning succeeding storm systems to track from
the Central Plains to the Northeast. This first system is already
impacting parts of the Midwest, Northern Plains, and Upper Great Lakes
with wintry weather and scattered thunderstorms. A low pressure system is
forecast to move from Iowa this afternoon and into the U.P. of Michigan by
Sunday morning. Meanwhile, an associated warm front will lift northward
across the Great Lakes and Northeast, ushering in well above average
temperatures within the warm sector. An attached cold front is also
forecast to swing through the Great Lakes on Sunday as the area of low
pressure strengthens and progresses into southern Quebec, Canada. Weather
hazards associated with system tonight include areas of moderate to heavy
snow from eastern South Dakota, across central Minnesota, and into far
northern Wisconsin. A few inches of snow falling quickly and after sunset
can make travel treacherous at times. Meanwhile, pockets of significant
freezing rain will remain a concern into early Sunday from northern
Wisconsin to the western U.P. of Michigan. Rain falling over extended
period of time with surface temperatures below freezing could lead to
total ice accretion amounts up to a half inch. This amount of ice can lead
to power outages and tree damage. Ice Storm Warnings, Winter Storm
Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect. On the warm side of
this system, a potent cold front will spark thunderstorms this evening
throughout parts of the Midwest. Several storms could turn severe across
south-central Iowa and northern Missouri. Damaging wind gusts associated
with these thunderstorms are the most likely hazard, but isolated
tornadoes and large hail are also possible. Additionally, gusty winds will
accompany the cold front into Sunday across much of the Great Lakes. Gusts
up to 65 mph are possible and could create power outages and difficult
driving conditions for high profile vehicles. High Wind Watches/Warnings
and Wind Advisories extend from central Iowa to western New York.

By Sunday evening, the next ejecting shortwave is forecast to enter the
Central Plains and spawn an area of low pressure along a quasi-stationary
boundary over eastern Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms will likely
develop along this boundary to the east of the surface low and could
produce heavy rain, which may lead to instances of flash flooding from the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley through Monday morning.
Isolated severe thunderstorms are also a possibility on Sunday from
southeast Oklahoma to far western Kentucky. As this system moves
northeastward on Sunday, the severe weather threat will shift east along
the cold front. SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms on
Monday that extends from West Virginia to central Alabama/Mississippi.
Chances for scattered flash flooding will also remain over parts of the
Ohio Valley as additional rainfall occurs over areas that could have
susceptible soils due to previous rainfall. WPC has issued a Slight Risk
of excessive rainfall on Monday from Kentucky to southwest Pennsylvania.
Farther north, colder air found over the Midwest and Great Lakes will
allow for a swath of light to moderate snow from parts of Iowa to Michigan
on Monday.

During the entire short range forecast period (through Monday), much of
the central and southern Rockies will be under the influence of a deep
upper-level trough, which will allow for continuing periods of snow. Total
snowfall amounts over 6 inches are likely over the higher terrain of
northern Utah, southwestern Wyoming, Colorado, and northern New Mexico. A
few inches of snow may also extend into the Colorado Front Range on
Sunday. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for most of these regions.

Elsewhere, the other major weather story will be associated with
record-breaking warmth extending throughout the eastern U.S. on Sunday and
Monday. Highs into the 70s will surge as far north as New Jersey and
Pennsylvania, with 80s possible into northern Virginia on Monday ahead of
the approaching cold front. These temperatures equate to around 20 to 30
degrees above average and will likely cause numerous daily records to
fall. Below average temperatures will be found behind the cold front in
the Intermountain West and Great Plains, with temperatures around 10 to 25
degrees below average. For the Southern High Plains and parts of the
Southeast, above average temperatures will lead to low relative humidity
and create dangerous fire weather conditions in tandem with gusty winds.
Red Flag Warnings have been issued.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php