Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EST Sun Mar 06 2022

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 06 2022 - 12Z Tue Mar 08 2022

...New system to produce severe weather and flash flooding from the
ArkLaTex to the Ohio Valley...

...Moderate to heavy snow forecast across the Rockies...

...Record-breaking warmth expected throughout parts of the East; Critical
Fire Weather risk remains over the Southern/Central Plains today...


A series of shortwaves rotating around an upper-level trough will promote
an active weather pattern throughout much of the central and eastern CONUS
over the next couple of days. A deep and dynamic low pressure system
responsible for freezing rain over the Upper Midwest yesterday will
generate gusty winds across the Midwest today as it departs into
southeastern Canada. High wind warnings and advisories are in effect for
much of the Midwest and Great Lakes as a result. Meanwhile, another
shortwave trough will emerge over the Great Plains today, spawning an area
of surface low pressure over the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. This
surface low will develop along a trailing cold front from the departing
Midwest system. This boundary will become the focus for severe weather
across portions of the Southern Plains, Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley,
and Tennessee/Ohio Valley today, where the Storm Prediction Center issued
a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms. An Enhanced Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms is in effect for the Missouri/Arkansas border today. The
main risks associated with today's severe weather will be a few tornadoes
and damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall leading to potential flash
flooding will occur along the surface front over the Lower/Middle
Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valley today due to the continued
fetch of moisture pumping into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. A
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect as a result. Light snow
will spread from the Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes today within
the cold sector of the developing system. The focus for flash flooding and
severe thunderstorms shifts eastward into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast on Monday, where heavy rain and damaging wind gusts will cause
problems.

Elsewhere, a strong warm front associated with the departing low pressure
system will gradually lift through the Northeast today allowing for very
mild air to settle over the eastern U.S. through Monday. Temperatures are
likely to be between 20-30 degrees above average in many places. This will
lead to the likelihood of widespread high/low temperature records being
tied or broken today and Monday. Warm temperatures paired with dry
conditions and gusty winds will continue to promote the chance for fire
weather over parts of the Central/Southern Plains today. A Critical Fire
Weather Risk is in effect for parts of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle and
central Oklahoma/Kansas. A cold front should sweep across the South and
East Monday evening, moderating temperatures in its wake. High pressure
will continue pushing through much of the western half of the country
today. High temperatures over the Front Range are likely to be 20-30
degrees below average today and tomorrow. The shortwave responsible for
generating today and tomorrow's hazardous weather over the central U.S.
will also produce heavy snowfall over parts of the Central/Southern
Rockies. A weaker piece of shortwave energy will generate lighter snow
over the same area tonight before things quiet down. Additional troughing
from western Canada will drop down into the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday
morning. This trough will pull Pacific moisture into the region, which
will produce low elevation rain and mountain snow over the Cascades and
Northern Rockies.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php