Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EST Tue Mar 08 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 09 2022 - 00Z Fri Mar 11 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Central Gulf
Coast through Wednesday morning...

...Heavy snow for parts of the Great Basin, Central Rockies, and Central
Plains through Thursday...

...Record-breaking low temperatures over the Northern Rockies; There is a
Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern Rockies/Southern
High Plains...

A wave of low pressure over the Central Gulf Coast moves to the southern
Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday, followed by a second wave of low pressure over
the Central Gulf Coast on Thursday. The associated front along the Central
Gulf Coast will trigger showers and thunderstorms; some of the
thunderstorms may become severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast through
Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. In addition, heavy rain with these thunderstorms will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

The threat of severe thunderstorms moves eastward to the Southeast as the
associated front produces showers and thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. The threat of excessive rainfall also
moves eastward along the front as the associated heavy rain creates
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central
Rockies will move eastward to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday
evening. The front will trigger light snow over parts of the Upper Great
Lakes through Thursday morning. The front, in combination with the area of
low pressure over the southern Mid-Atlantic, will aid in producing two to
four inches of snow over parts of the interior Northeast on Wednesday.
Furthermore, upper-level energy moving over the Pacific Northwest will
push the western end of the front to move southward over the Great Basin
into the Southwest and Southern Rockies by Thursday. Overnight Tuesday,
the energy will produce coastal rain and light snow over parts of the
Northwest into the Northern Rockies that will expand into parts of the
Great Basin and Central Rockies on Wednesday. The rain will end over the
Northwest by late afternoon on Wednesday. The snow will be heavy over the
higher elevations of the Great Basin and Central Rockies.

Additionally, light to moderate snow will also develop over parts of the
Central Plains on Wednesday. Along with the snow, cold temperatures will
be over the Northern Rockies/Northern/Central High Plains, with some
locations experiencing record or tied for record low temperatures on
Wednesday and Thursday morning. Heavy snow will develop over the Central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley as a wave of low pressure moves
out of the Central Rockies on Thursday. Moreover, as the system moves out
of the Rockies, gusty wind, low humidity, and dry fuels have contributed
to an area of Critical Risk of fire weather over the Southern Rockies into
the Southern High Plains on Wednesday.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php