Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 11 2022 - 12Z Sun Mar 13 2022

...A significant winter storm will impact portions of the Tennessee/Ohio
Valleys through the interior Eastern US late today through Saturday...

...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms expected to impact the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic this weekend...

...Frigid temperatures return to much of the Central US this weekend as an
Arctic airmass descends over the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley...

...New Pacific system to bring heavy snowfall to the Cascades and Northern
Rockies beginning late Saturday...

An amplifying upper-level trough will be the driving force behind an
active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard through Saturday
afternoon. A swath of light snow will fall from the Southern Plains to the
Wisconsin today on the backside of a cold front traversing the central
U.S.. This cold front will strengthen as the upper trough deepens, which
will lead to the development of a significant winter storm across the
Tennessee/Ohio Valleys through the interior Eastern U.S. late today
through Saturday. Snow rates of greater than 1 inch per hour combined with
gusty winds will produce blowing and drifting snow. This will severely
reduce visibility and make for difficult to hazardous driving conditions.
The greatest snow accumulations are likely across portions of the interior
Northeast where totals in excess of 12 inches are likely. Heavy wet
snowflakes may cause scattered power outages. Cold air will spread across
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic in the wake of this storm system with lows
likely to be below freezing along the Gulf Coast and into northern Florida
Sunday morning.

In the South another low pressure system will produce heavy rainfall and
scattered to severe thunderstorms over much of the coastal
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic through Saturday afternoon. This system will send a
warm front north toward the Gulf coast this morning. This boundary in
conjunction with the amplifying upper trough over the central U.S. will
allow for substantial moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to overspread the
coastal front and impact much of the Southeast. Heavy rain and severe
thunderstorms are likely to focus around the panhandle of Florida late
tonight before expanding into the coastal Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. A
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect
for the central Florida panhandle into southern Georgia for tonight.
Enhanced Risks of Severe Thunderstorms are in effect for portions of the
central panhandle of Florida and coastal Carolinas today and Saturday
morning respectively. Slight Risks of Severe Thunderstorms are also in
effect for much of the central Gulf Coast through the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight through Saturday morning.
Damaging winds, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible during this
time. Light to moderate rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected to
spread into the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Northeast late Friday night and
continuing through Saturday.

An Arctic airmass currently stationed over central U.S. will expand
eastward into the Midwest and Deep South on Saturday before shifting into
the East Coast on Sunday. High temperatures for today are likely to be
between 20-30 degrees below average over much of the Central Plains. Much
of North Dakota will struggle to make it out of the single digits today. A
new system will arrive over the Pacific Northwest on Saturday, leading to
the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall for the coastal and low lying
areas as well as heavy snow for the Cascades and Northern Rockies.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php