Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 12 2022 - 00Z Mon Mar 14 2022

...A significant winter storm will impact portions of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and New England tonight
through early Sunday...

...Temperatures will fall 20 to 30 degrees below average across the
central and eastern U.S. behind an Arctic cold front, including
sub-freezing temperatures to the Gulf Coast Sunday morning...

...Heavy rain and possible flash flooding for northern Florida into
southeastern Georgia will continue through this evening before waning
early Saturday morning...

...Locally heavy rain and mountain snow to affect the Pacific Northwest
beginning late Saturday...

An active weather pattern will affect the eastern third of the nation
through Saturday as a strong upper level trough moves east from the
central U.S. An area of low pressure at the surface will organize tonight
over the Gulf Coast states out ahead of the upper level trough, rapidly
deepening during the day on Saturday as the low quickly tracks
northeastward toward the coast of New England. Anomalously cold air will
filter in behind a series of cold fronts that will consolidate into a
single system late Saturday over the eastern U.S.

Snow will begin to overspread locations from the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys tonight, with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation expected as far south
as northern Mississippi into northern Alabama. Higher totals are forecast
just north into central Tennessee and the Upper Ohio Valley before heavy
snow transitions to snow showers for late Saturday afternoon. Farther
east, rain will change to snow for the Mid-Atlantic states into southern
New England early Saturday as winds turn to northwesterly and increase in
speed. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are expected to combine
with winds gusting up to 50 mph which will make for extremely dangerous
travel given significant reductions to visibility on Saturday. The highest
snowfall accumulations are expected over central and northern New York
into northern New England where 6 to over 12 inches are likely. The storm
system will continue to rapidly deepen as it exits into the Canadian
Maritimes Saturday night leaving a dome of cold high pressure in its wake
over the East Coast for Sunday.

Heavy rain, which is ongoing Friday evening across northern Florida, will
continue though tonight, before coming to an end as the cold front pushes
through the area Saturday morning. Much colder air will be found in the
wake of the cold front, as much as 20 to 30 degrees below average for this
time of year, from the central to the eastern U.S. Sub-freezing
temperatures are forecast as far south as the central Gulf Coast to
northern Florida with several record low temperatures expected Sunday
morning, stretching from Louisiana to Florida, the Tennessee Valley into
the Mid-Atlantic region.

Across the western half of the nation, fairly quiet weather will begin to
become more active with the approach of a Pacific cyclone into Washington
and Oregon late Saturday. Periods of heavy rain along with heavy mountain
snow will accompany this storm system which will spread east into the
interior Northwest by Sunday morning. After a brief break, another round
of
precipitation will begin to approach the Pacific Northwest Sunday night as
another cold front nears the coast.

Otto

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php