Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 12 2022 - 12Z Mon Mar 14 2022

...A significant late season winter storm to produce a plethora of
hazardous weather up and down the East Coast that includes heavy snow,
strong winds, severe weather, and flash flooding...

...Temperatures to fall 20 to 30 degrees below average across the central
and eastern U.S. behind an Arctic cold front this weekend, including
sub-freezing temperatures to the Gulf Coast Sunday morning...

...Locally heavy rain and mountain snow to affect the Pacific Northwest
beginning late Saturday; High winds expected in the northern High Plains...

A robust upper level trough is supporting an environment favorable for the
rapid intensification of a low pressure system tracking up the Eastern
Seaboard later today. Considerably colder than normal temperatures
spilling into the eastern third of the Lower 48 will allow precipitation
to fall as snow from the Mid-South and Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. As
heavy snow ends in parts of the Tennessee Valley early this morning, the
axis of heavy snow moves into the northern Mid-Atlantic and interior
Northeast. Snow totals exceeding 4 inches are forecast from the central
Appalachians on north into the Poconos, Catskills, and northern
Appalachians. Snowfall totals could accumulate exceed a foot in the higher
elevations of the Northeast. Lighter accumulations on the order of 1 to 3
inches are possible along the I-95 corridor with slick travel conditions
possible. In addition to the periods of snow, winds will pick up and
near-whiteout conditions could unfold, making for treacherous travel
conditions by both ground and air. Wind Advisories have been hoisted from
the central Gulf Coast and Southeast on north into the Northeast where
wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible. Severe weather is also forecast in
the Southeast where an Enhanced Risk (threat level 3/5) has been posted
from Savannah, GA on north through the coastal Carolinas and into
southeast Virginia. A Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) extends south into
central Florida as well. Severe storms in these areas could produce
damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and hail. Lastly, heavy rainfall could
lead to localized flash flooding in parts of northern Florida this morning.

In wake of this storm system, an injection of cold Canadian air is
bringing perhaps one of the last shots of winter-like conditions the
winter season has to offer in the East. Numerous record cold max
temperatures are forecast from the Great Lakes on south to the central
Gulf Coast. Daytime high temperature anomalies will range between 20 to 30
degrees below normal throughout the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. By
Sunday morning, lows will be in the teens throughout the Great Lakes and
Northeast with subfreezing temps anticipated from the central Gulf Coast
to northern Florida. Due to the expected subfreezing temperatures, Freeze
Warnings have been issued for Saturday night and early Sunday morning from
the Lower Mississippi Valley and northern Florida to central South
Carolina. Temperatures will be cold enough to break records in the
Southeast where record cold is possible as far south as the Tampa, FL
metro area. Temperatures will begin to moderate in the Midwest where
daytime highs are set to reach the 60s by Sunday. The same moderating
temperature trend eventually reaches the East Coast by the start of the
upcoming week.

In the West, a more active pattern returns as a potent Pacific cyclone
slams into the Pacific Northwest late Saturday. Periods of heavy rain
along with heavy mountain snow will accompany this storm system which will
spread east into the interior Northwest by Sunday morning. After a brief
break, another round of precipitation reaches the Pacific Northwest Sunday
night and continues into Monday morning as another cold front nears the
coast. Farther inland, strong wind gusts are expected in the northern
Sierra Nevada and the northern High Plains. High Winds Warnings and
Watches have been issued for these areas today as wind gusts in excess of
60 mph are possible, making for difficult travel conditions for high
profile vehicles as well as a chance for downed trees and power outages.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php