Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 13 2022 - 00Z Tue Mar 15 2022

...Record breaking cold throughout the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, and
Southeast on Sunday morning...

...Locally heavy rain and mountain snow to affect the Pacific Northwest
beginning tonight...

...Swath of light-to-moderate snow possible across the Upper Midwest on
Monday...


A powerful and strengthening low pressure system will race northeastward
away from New England this evening and into the Canadian Maritimes. As it
does so, an associated cold front will continue to surge into the western
Atlantic and leave behind a bitterly cold airmass throughout much of the
eastern United States and gusty winds over parts of the Northeast. Areas
that received snow today from the Tennessee Valley to the Northeast will
likely experience temperatures bottoming out into the teens on Sunday
morning. Meanwhile, lows in the 20s and 30s will extend all the way to the
Gulf Coast and Southeast coastline. Much of northern Florida will also
contend with subfreezing temperatures to start off the day. These cold and
potentially record breaking temperatures could pose a threat to sensitive
vegetation and unprotected outdoor plumbing in the Southeast. Freeze
Warnings extend from far southeast Texas to South Carolina and central
Florida. Fortunately, temperatures are expected to quickly rebound to near
normal by Tuesday as high pressure slips off the East Coast and ushers in
warmer southerly winds.

For the Pacific Northwest, a potent low pressure system is forecast to
move inland near the Washington-Oregon border on Sunday. Locally heavy
rain will remain a possibility across coastal regions and the low
elevation, with heavy mountain snow throughout the Cascades (mainly above
3000 feet). As the associated upper-level trough races into the Central
Plains on Monday, a strong upper-level jet streak will create a ripe
environment for a narrow swath of moderate snow throughout the Upper
Midwest on Monday. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in
northern Wisconsin and the southern U.P. of Michigan.

Elsewhere, a cold front is forecast to race southward and into the
Southern Plains by Monday. Gusty winds and low relative humidity will make
for critical fire weather conditions from eastern New Mexico across the
Texas Panhandle and into western Oklahoma. Additionally, on the warm side
of this system return flow out of the western Gulf of Mexico is
anticipated to collide with the approaching cold front near the Arklatex
region. As a result, numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are
likely to develop by Monday evening. A few storms could turn severe, which
has prompted SPC to issue a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms for East Texas and the Arklatex between Monday afternoon and
evening.

Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php