Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
157 AM EST Sun Mar 13 2022

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 13 2022 - 12Z Tue Mar 15 2022

...Record breaking cold throughout the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, and
Southeast on Sunday morning; swath of light-to-moderate snow possible
across the Upper Midwest on Monday...

...A pair of storm systems to produce locally heavy rain and mountain snow
throughout the Pacific Northwest...

...Critical fire weather conditions in the Southern High Plains today and
Monday; severe weather possible in the ArkLaTex late Monday and early
Tuesday...

A frigid Canadian air-mass has infiltrated much of the eastern U.S. this
morning in wake of yesterday's significant winter storm. Record low
temperatures are forecast from the Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley on
south into northern and central Florida. In addition to the record lows,
Freeze Warnings have been posted due to subfreezing temperatures from the
central Gulf Coast to northern Florida and South Carolina. There are also
Wind Chill Advisories in place for parts of the Southeast and the southern
and central Appalachians. Temperatures will feel more like February as
daytime high temperature anomalies throughout the Deep South and up the
East Coast range between 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Temperatures will
gradually moderate throughout the East on Monday with the Northeast
expected to see the return of more seasonal conditions. The Deep South can
expect seasonally cool temps to stick around into the first half of the
week. While winter's chill wains in the East, a swath of snow is forecast
to set up over the Upper Midwest as an upper level disturbance approaches
from the northern Rockies. Several inches are possible in northern
Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and northern Michigan late Sunday night
into Monday.

In the Pacific Northwest, a potent frontal system is moving inland today
bringing heavy precipitation and gusty winds Sunday morning. Locally heavy
rain will remain a possibility across coastal regions and the low
elevation, with heavy mountain snow throughout the Cascades (mainly above
3000 feet). Wind gusts exceeding 60 mph are also possible in southern
Oregon the first half of Sunday, resulting in the issuance of High Wind
Warnings. A brief lull in the action arrives Sunday afternoon and evening
before the next surge of Pacific moisture associated with another
approaching storm system arrives late Monday. Periods of coastal/valley
rain will fall heavily at times Monday night while snow falls in the
Washington and Oregon Cascades. Welcomed rainfall and mountains snow
eventually tracks into northern California by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere, gusty winds and low relative humidity levels are a recipe for
critical fire weather conditions from eastern New Mexico across the Texas
Panhandle and into western Oklahoma today. As a cold front races south on
Monday, the critical fire weather threat shifts to West Texas where the
combination of strong wind gusts and low relative humidity levels are
expected to take shape. Additionally, a strengthening area of low pressure
in the Southern Plains Monday evening will tap into rich Gulf of Mexico
moisture that is forecast to collide with the approaching cold front near
the Arklatex region. As a result, numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms are likely to develop by Monday evening and continue into
early morning Tuesday. A few storms could become severe, which has
prompted SPC to issue a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms
for East Texas and the Arklatex between Monday evening and into early
Tuesday morning.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php