Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 14 2022 - 00Z Wed Mar 16 2022


...Severe weather possible over Northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex on Monday
and across northern Florida on Tuesday...

...Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern High
Plains on Monday...

...Additional heavy precipitation possible across the Northwest on
Tuesday...

A system that moved inland earlier today and brought widespread
precipitation to the Northwest and northern Rockies, including areas of
locally heavy mountain snow, is forecast to move steadily southeast. 
Generally light precipitation is expected across the central Rockies as
this system moves across that area this evening and overnight. 

By tomorrow morning, the system is expected to move east of the Rockies,
sending a cold front south through the southern High Plains.  Low humidity
and gusty winds are expected to generate elevated to critical fire weather
concerns across portions of the region, especially for the Trans-Pecos and
Big Bend regions of Texas.

As the system continues farther east, it will begin to interact with moist
and unstable air streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico.  Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to develop during the afternoon and evening hours
across eastern Texas and Oklahoma into Arkansas and Louisiana.  Some of
these storms may become strong to severe.  The Storm Prediction Center
continues to highlight much of Northeast Texas into the ArkLaTex and far
southeastern Oklahoma with a Slight Risk (level 2/5).  Storms that develop
across this area may produce large hail, isolated wind damage or a tornado
two during the afternoon and evening hours.

On Tuesday, as the system tracks east along the Gulf Coast, showers and
storms will spread from the lower Mississippi Valley across the Southeast,
with locally heavy heavy rain possible.  Strong to severe storms will once
again be possible.  The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions
of the northern Florida Peninsula with Slight Risk, noting that damaging
winds will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours.

Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories currently cover much of central
Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.  One more night of well-below normal
temperatures is expected before cold high pressure moves offshore and
temperatures begin to moderate on Monday.

Farther to the north, a weak upper disturbance is expected to produce of
narrow stripe of light to moderate snow, producing accumulations of a few
inches from North Dakota to northern Michigan tonight into Monday.

Meanwhile, another system is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest
and northern Rockies, producing another round of widespread precipitation,
including potentially locally heavy amounts across portions of the western
Washington and Oregon as it moves across the region on Tuesday.

Pereira

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php