Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 14 2022 - 12Z Wed Mar 16 2022

...Severe weather possible over Northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex on Monday
and across northern Florida on Tuesday...

...Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern High
Plains on Monday...

...Additional heavy precipitation possible across the Northwest Monday
into Tuesday...

Monday starts off on a cold note in the Southeast where Freeze Warnings
and Frost Advisories are in place. Temperatures will moderate to milder
levels than Sunday throughout the eastern third of the Lower 48, but some
hints of winter still remain in the Midwest and Great Lakes. A wave of low
pressure will be responsible for producing a narrow swath of accumulating
snowfall from central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin into northern
Michigan. Winter Weather Advisories have been posted in these areas where
several inches of snow are possible. By Monday night, periods of snow
reach northern New England but only minor accumulations are expected. In
the South, a strengthening wave of low pressure will ignite areas of
thunderstorms in the east Texas and the ArkLaTex late Monday afternoon and
into Monday night. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for these areas as
storms could become severe with damaging winds, large hail, and
potentially tornadoes. Heavy rainfall is also expected throughout the Deep
South with over an inch of rainfall throughout much of the region (locally
higher amounts possible). The severe threat shifts east on Tuesday as the
occluded low tracks along the Gulf Coast. Strong-to-severe storms are
likely from the mouth of the Mississippi River to south-central Florida
with damaging winds and tornadoes/water spouts possible. Some storms may
also produce excessive rainfall rates, prompting the issuance of a
Marginal Risk for flash flooding in parts of northern and central Florida
on Tuesday.

In the southern High Plains, favorable conditions for fire weather are
expected to linger into Monday. West Texas and southeast New Mexico are
most susceptible to high wind gusts and very low humidity levels. This has
led to the issuance of a Critical Risk for fire weather in parts of these
regions, as well as a handful of Red Flag Warnings. As a cold front swings
through the southern High Plains Monday night, the fire weather threat
should diminish heading into Tuesday. Still, favorable fire weather
conditions look to return to northern Nebraska on Tuesday where an
Elevated Risk for fire weather has been issued by the SPC. Farther west, a
pair of Pacific storm systems are responsible for unsettled weather in the
Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern California. Beneficial
rainfall on the order of 1 to 2 inches are expected in parts of the
coastal range of California and western Oregon through early Wednesday
morning. Measurable snowfall is also anticipated in the Cascades,
Olympics, Sawtooths, Bitterroots, and northern Rockies of western Montana.
The heaviest totals are forecast in the Washington Cascades where two the
three feet of snow is possible in the highest elevations over the next
couple days.

Temperature-wise, the Nation's Heartland will undergo a spring-like
transition, culminating with daytime high temperature anomalies ranging
between 15 and 25 degrees from the Texas Panhandle and Midwest to the
Lower Great Lakes by Wednesday. The coldest temperatures are set to occur
in the Northwest and central Rockies as a more active storm track helps to
keep temperatures below normal in these areas. Look for the warming trend
to reach the East Coast by Wednesday with highs in the 60s throughout the
Mid-Atlantic.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php