Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 15 2022 - 12Z Thu Mar 17 2022

...Severe weather and heavy rain along the central Gulf Coast and in the
Southeast...

...Pacific storm system ushers unsettled weather pattern into the
Northwest and the Rockies...

...April-like warmth returns to the Heartland, Great Lakes, and Northeast;
Elevated Risks for fire weather in the southern and central High Plains...

An upper level low and associated frontal system is responsible for
scattered showers and thunderstorms traversing the Deep South this
morning. This upper low will continue to spawn additional showers and
thunderstorms along the central Gulf Coast and eventually reaching Florida
by Tuesday evening. Some thunderstorms could be severe with damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes the primary modes of severe hazards possible. By
Wednesday, the storm system will track into the Southeast where rounds of
showers and thunderstorms will stretch from southern Virginia on south
into South Florida. Severe storms could develop in parts of the Southeast
with damaging winds and tornadoes possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening. The severe threat begins to diminish by Thursday morning as the
storm system's warm sector moves offshore, but lingering showers are
anticipated in the southern Mid-Atlantic. In total, through early Thursday
morning, most areas from the central Gulf Coast to the Carolinas can
expect 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with localized totals surpassing 2 inches
where the most intense convection transpires.

Farther west, a Pacific disturbance is directing Pacific moisture at the
Northwest and northern California. Precipitation will fall in the form of
snow in the Cascades with accumulations exceeding a foot expected in the
highest elevations. Rain will be the primary precipitation type in the
lower elevations and coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest today and into
tonight. As the upper level feature tracks inland on Tuesday, so will the
shield of precipitation with mountain snow/valley rain moving into the
northern Rockies and northern Great Basin Tuesday evening. By Wednesday,
the upper trough deepens in the central Rockies, leading to mountain snow
breaking out in the central Rockies late Wednesday into early Thursday. By
Thursday morning, portions of the Sawtooths, Bitterroots, Tetons, and the
Rockies of western Wyoming and central Colorado, can expect 6 to 12 inches
of snow with the nighest amounts expected in the more northern mountain
ranges.

Temperature-wise, a surge of above normal temperatures arrive in the
Nation's Heartland today and Wednesday. Daytime highs will soar into the
60s and 70s in the Great Plains today with more 70s and even 80s popping
up in parts of the Southern Plains by Wednesday. A warming trend is also
expected in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast with daytime highs
ranging between 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Warmer than normal
temperatures are also on tap in the Desert Southwest while seasonally
colder temperatures settle in across the Northwest. In terms of fire
weather, dry conditions and occasionally gusty winds are favoring Elevated
Risks for fire weather in the central High Plains today, then into the
Southern High Plains on Wednesday.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php