Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 353 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 16 2022 - 12Z Fri Mar 18 2022 ...Occluded storm system to direct showers and thunderstorms across the Southeast and eventually the Mid-Atlantic... ...Strengthening upper low to deliver mountain snow to the Central Rockies and trigger severe weather in the South Central U.S. Thursday... ...April-like warmth returns to the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Northeast; Elevated-to-Critical Risks for fire weather expected in the Southwest and Southern High Plains... A storm system in the Deep South this morning will track east today while producing heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Southeast. Some thunderstorms will be severe with the best chances focused in southern South Carolina, coastal Georgia, and northern Florida where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk (threat level 2/5). Potential modes of severe weather include damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. By Thursday morning, the area of low pressure is likely to be positioned in eastern North Carolina where a Marginal Risk for severe weather will also be co-located. The storm eventually tracks off the East Coast by Thursday afternoon with only lingering spotty showers expected along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast. In total through Thursday night, roughly 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is anticipated for most of the Carolinas with localized amounts exceeding 2 inches possible. Farther west, a Pacific disturbance in the Northwest that will produce scattered rain and mountain snow showers in the Rockies and Intermountain West is forecast to deepen and strengthen Wednesday night over the Four Corners region. This will promote the formation of a new low pressure system in the Southern Plains by Thursday morning. As the upper trough strengthens, it will blanket the central and southern Rockies in snow Wednesday night into Thursday. Latest forecast through Thursday night calls for 8 to 12 inches of snow in the Colorado Rockies with totals exceeding a foot in the highest elevations. Precipitation will blossom north of the the warm front as the surface low strengthens Thursday afternoon and into Thursday night. Meanwhile, in the storm's warm sector, thunderstorms will break out from southern Oklahoma and northeast Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) has been issued for these areas with the usual modes of severe weather (damaging wings, hail, tornadoes) all possible within severe storms. Locally excessive rainfall rates are also possible within heavy showers and thunderstorms as well. Temperature-wise, the April-like temperature regime will stick around through Thursday from the Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Daytime high temperature departures ranging between 10 to 20 degrees above normal results in actual temps reaching the 70s in the Midwest and Ohio Valley today with mid-upper 60s common in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The overall hottest temperatures will be in Texas where high temps will make a run at the 90s along the Rio Grande in South Texas. In contrast, the upper low traversing the Rockies and central Plains on Thursday will provide a shot of below normal max temps (~10-15 degrees below normal) to these regions. In terms of fire weather, dry conditions and occasionally gusty winds give credence to an Elevated Risk by SPC Wednesday stretching from southern Arizona to the southern High Plains. As the pressure gradient tightens on Thursday, stronger winds and considerably drier dew points behind the dryline will support and even more favorable environment for fire weather. As a result, a Critical Risk has been issued from central Texas to West Texas for Thursday. Mullinax Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php