Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 17 2022 - 12Z Sat Mar 19 2022

...Cloudy, wet, and dreary along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast
today...

...Strengthening upper low to trigger severe weather from the South
Central U.S. to the Mid-South; Extremely Critical Risk of Fire Weather in
west-central Texas...

...Accumulating snowfall to the Central and Southern Rockies and adjacent
High Plains...

...April-like warmth continues for the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Desert
Southwest; Unsettled weather pattern in the Pacific Northwest...

The area of low pressure that was responsible for producing severe storms
and areas of flash flooding in the Southeast on Wednesday tracks off the
East Coast later today. The storm's close proximity to the coast will
bring an overcast sky and showers to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England today. This in turn helps to keep daytime high temps closer to
more seasonal levels. The severe threat is substantially lower due to the
storm's warm sector now positioned off the coast but locally
moderate-to-heavy rainfall rates are still possible along the DelMarVa and
southern NJ coast this afternoon. The area of low pressure heads farther
east into the Atlantic tonight and drier conditions return by Friday, as
will the abnormally warm temperatures that makes it feel more like
mid-April rather than mid-March.

The next weather maker is a vigorous upper level trough exiting New Mexico
and heading for the Southern Plains later this afternoon. Warm/moist air
surging out of the Gulf of Mexico and drier/cooler air in the Four Corners
region will clash from northern Texas and southern Oklahoma to the Lower
Mississippi Valley. These ingredients have set the stage for blossoming
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into Thursday night. Some of
these storm will be severe, which is why the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
has issued a Slight Risk of severe weather from the Oklahoma City and
Dallas metro areas to New Orleans. Severe weather hazards such as damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible. There is also a
Marginal Risk of flash flooding in southern Mississippi and eastern
Louisiana. Meanwhile, in central and western Texas, excessively dry
relative humidity levels and gusty winds west of the dryline and ahead of
the approaching cold front is leading to dangerously favorable fire
weather conditions. The SPC has issued an Extremely Critical Risk in
west-central Texas with a large Critical Risk area that stretches from
central Texas to the Texas/Mexico border in far West Texas. In addition to
the severe threat today, snow is forecast to blanket parts of Colorado and
northern New Mexico with lighter accumulations expected in the central
Plains. The heaviest totals are set to occur in the southern Colorado
Rockies and northern New Mexico where snow totals may exceed a foot in the
higher elevations. The Denver metro area is under a Winter Storm Warning
through Thursday morning for snow totals ranging between 3 to 5 inches.

The robust upper trough makes its way into the Middle Mississippi Valley
on Friday, pushing the severe weather threat into the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys and along the central Gulf Coast where severe storms may contain
damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Some thunderstorms may also
contain excessive rainfall rates, prompting the issuance of a Marginal
Risk for flash flooding in Alabama and western Georgia. Farther north,
periods of rain are expected across the Great Lakes with some light snow
accumulations possible in central Iowa, central Wisconsin, and northern
Michigan. By Saturday morning, the threat for severe weather will shift to
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast with scattered showers stretching
from the Florida Panhandle up the East Coast to New England.

Elsewhere, the Pacific Northwest will contend with a pair of storm
systems. The first wave of low pressure ushers an initial round of showers
and mountain snow to the western Washington Thursday afternoon and
evening. After a brief break in the action on Friday, the next wave of
showers arrives Friday night and continues into Saturday.
Temperature-wise, April-like warmth will be common the second half of the
week from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast, in the Northern Plains,
Florida, and the Desert Southwest. In fact, a few daily record highs could
be challenged in the Northeast on Friday.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php