Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
441 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 19 2022 - 00Z Mon Mar 21 2022

...Severe weather expected across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf
Coast States today and potentially along the East Coast on Saturday...

...Rain and snow to spread over the Midwest and Great Lakes through
Saturday, with a wintry mix entering northern New England to start the
weekend...

...Cold front to swing into the West Coast tonight and extend unsettled
weather throughout the Great Basin and Northern Rockies this weekend...

An area of low pressure currently located over eastern Oklahoma and its
associated frontal boundaries are expected to be the main focus for active
weather over the eastern half of the Nation over the next few days. This
storm system is forecast to track northeast before eventually reaching
northern New England by Sunday. Meanwhile, an attached cold front will
push eastward and off the East Coast by Sunday as well. For today, the
aforementioned cold front is expected to collide with a warm and moist
airmass flowing from over the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeast. This
will spark numerous showers and thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast
to the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to turn severe from
southern Mississippi to central/southern Alabama. Tornadoes, damaging wind
gusts, and isolated large hail will be possible. Storms with large hail
and damaging wind gusts are also possible farther north across the Ohio
and Tennessee Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms that includes southeast
Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, as well a far western sections
of the Florida Panhandle. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) extends from the
central Gulf Coast to southern Indiana. By Saturday, the cold front and
associated severe weather threat will shift east toward the East Coast and
Mid-Atlantic. A very warm airmass in place for this time of year along the
East Coast will feature highs into the 70s and 80s into southern New
Jersey. This will help fuel the potential for isolated strong to locally
severe thunderstorms. As a result, SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
weather on Saturday for parts New York and Pennsylvania, as well as a
region from the Delmarva Peninsula to northern Florida. Along with the
severe weather threat, isolated instances of flash flooding are possible
where the strongest storms occur. This is most likely over parts of the
Southeast today, where a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall
has been issued.

Farther north and closer to the area of low pressure, rain is forecast to
overspread the Midwest and Great Lakes today as the system enters the
region. Pockets of wet snow are possible over northeast Kansas, central
Iowa, central Wisconsin and northern Michigan as colder air in the lower
levels of the atmosphere attempts to sink toward the surface. A few inches
of accumulating snowfall is possible on grassy and elevated surfaces.
Elsewhere, a wintry mix is forecast to enter parts of northern New England
as precipitation enters this corner of the country on Saturday. A glaze or
more of ice is possible from central Vermont to northern Maine, with a few
inches of snow a possibility as well.

For the western U.S., a cold front entering the West Coast tonight will
spread rain showers and mountain snow from Washington to central
California by Saturday. This cold front is then expected to shift into the
Great Basin and Northern Rockies, where additional high elevation snow and
low elevation rain showers are likely.


Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php