Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
711 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 19 2022 - 00Z Mon Mar 21 2022

...Severe weather possible across parts of the Southeast and Ohio Valley
tonight and shifting to the East Coast on Saturday...

...Pleasant conditions will build in behind the departing storm system in
the Eastern Region on Sunday...

...Next storm system to move onshore the West Coast tonight bringing
unsettled weather to the Great Basin and Northern Rockies this weekend...

A strong low-pressure system will continue its eastward progress during
the Friday afternoon hours, bringing a multitude of weather hazards to a
broad portion of the Central and Eastern region through Saturday. Warm,
moist air being advected from the Gulf ahead of a cold front associated
with the system has led to the potential for severe thunderstorms in the
Tennessee Valley and the Southeast through the evening, as it clashes with
the advancing cool air. As a consequence of this, the Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for much of
the Southeast due to the potential for damaging winds and an isolated
tornado. Due to the convective nature of these storms, the potential for
heavy rainfall rates exists, leading to a Marginal risk for Excessive
Rainfall being hoisted for southeastern Alabama, the Florida panhandle and
western Georgia. The severe and flash flooding threat should wane into the
Friday evening hours as atmospheric conditions become less favorable for
development. Further north into the Midwest and Great Lakes region, cooler
air will inhibit convective potential leading to mainly light to moderate
rainfall through Saturday morning, with pockets of mixed precipitation
behind the cold front.

As the storm system moves eastward, rain will overspread much of the
Northeast during the early Saturday hours, with mixed precipitation
possible in the highest elevations in interior New England and northern
Maine. The potential exists for severe thunderstorms in Pennsylvania and
southern Upstate New York ahead of the surface front, leading to a Slight
Risk for severe thunderstorms being issued for the region, where strong
wind gusts and small hail is possible. A Slight Risk has also been issued
for a large stretch of the Southeast coastline from Jacksonville, FL
northward into the North Carolina Outer Banks. Conditions should begin to
improve from west to east during the Saturday afternoon hours as the storm
system progresses towards the Canadian Maritimes, setting the stage for a
pleasant Sunday for much of the Eastern region, with dry weather and
seasonable temperatures expected.

Further west, the next storm system will make its way onshore late Friday
evening, bringing with it the potential for high elevation snow, strong
winds, and moderate rainfall from the Pacific Northwest southward into
Southern California. As the frontal system progresses eastward, the
potential for precipitation will move into the Great Basin and
Intermountain West, where additional high elevation snow and low elevation
rain is likely on Sunday.


Russell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php