Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 19 2022 - 12Z Mon Mar 21 2022

...Departing storm system to produce the threat of severe weather across
parts of the Northeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard today along with a
wintry mix over far northern New England...

...Cold front advancing across the West today is expected to bring
unsettled weather to the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies before
potentially producing heavy snow over parts of the Central Rockies/High
Plains on Monday...

...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible throughout portions of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday...

Areas of showers, thunderstorms, and pockets of wintry weather will be
found along the eastern U.S. today as a storm system and associated cold
front traverses the region. A few storms may turn severe across parts of
the Northeast, as well as along the Atlantic Seaboard from eastern North
Carolina to northern Florida. Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail
are the main concern; however, a few tornadoes are also a possibility
beginning late this afternoon over eastern Pennsylvania and far western
New Jersey. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe thunderstorms for these areas in order to highlight the
potential. Farther north, snowflakes are likely to mix with rain over the
Great Lakes today as a rather damp and dreary start to the weekend is on
tap for the region. A wintry mix is also expected across far northern New
England. More specifically, northern Vermont and northern Maine could see
a few inches of snow in addition to a quarter inch of ice. Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued here. After an abnormally warm day today,
temperatures will cool down behind the cold front to near typical
mid-March conditions on Sunday throughout the eastern United States.

The next storm system to impact the Lower 48 will enter the West Coast
this morning and swing across the Intermountain West tonight. Mountain
snow and lower elevation rain showers are expected as the cold front
passes. By Sunday night and into the day on Monday, an upper-level low
deepening over the Southern Rockies is forecast to spawn a surface low
pressure system over the southern High Plains. As a result, moderate to
locally heavy snow will be possible over the Central Rockies and into the
central High Plains. Additionally, gusty winds are forecast to accompany
the system into Monday night and could lead to reduced visibility and
isolated power outages. The gusty winds ahead of the system will combine
with low relative humidity to create critical fire weather conditions over
much of the central and southern High Plains on Sunday.

On the warm side of the system over the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley on Monday, severe weather and instances of flash
flooding are possible. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely to
develop as a warm, moist airmass surges from the western Gulf of Mexico
ahead of an advancing cold front. Rainfall totals greater than 2 inches
are possible and could create rapid runoff and flooding issues. WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall for parts of
southeast Oklahoma and the Arklatex region. Additionally, thunderstorms
are likely to turn severe over an area extending from eastern Texas to
western Louisiana on Monday. SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5)
of severe thunderstorms in order to highlight the threat of damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and tornadoes.


Snell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php