Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
456 PM EDT Sun Mar 20 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 21 2022 - 00Z Wed Mar 23 2022

...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible throughout portions of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday...

... Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible throughout portions of
the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast on Tuesday...

...Moderate to locally heavy snow possible over the Rockies through
Tuesday...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
Rockies and Southern High Plains...

Overnight Sunday into Monday, a strong front and the associated deep
upper-level trough will move across the Rockies to the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. The storm will produce rain and higher
elevation snow over the Rockies and the Southwest overnight Sunday into
Monday morning. As the system moves out of the Rockies, a wave of low
pressure will develop over the Southern High Plains, pulling moisture
northward over the Plains and Mississippi Valley from the Gulf of Mexico.
The wave of low pressure will produce snow over the Central/Southern
Rockies and showers and thunderstorms over the Central/Southern Plains and
the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Some of the thunderstorms will become
severe. Therefore, on Monday, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. In addition, there is a 10% or greater probability of two-inch
or great hail and a 10% or greater probability of EF2-EF5 within 25 miles
of a point over parts of the Southern Plains on Monday into Tuesday
morning.

In addition, there is a threat of excessive rainfall also. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with these
thunderstorms. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of
flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers on Monday through Tuesday morning over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley.

The severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat move eastward, while
the severe threat increases on Tuesday to the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee
Valleys and Southeast. Therefore, on Tuesday, the SPC has issued a
Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee
Valleys. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. On
Tuesday, there is a 10% or greater probability of significant severe
weather within 25 miles of a point over parts of the region. With the
threat of excessive rainfall, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of
excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast on Tuesday. The associated
heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers on Tuesday.

Furthermore, light rain and snow will develop over parts of the Upper
Midwest on Monday. On Tuesday, the rain and snow move into parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes. However, there is a
threat of rain/freezing rain over parts of the region on Tuesday with up
to 0.10 inches of ice.

Meanwhile, onshore flow and a deep upper-level trough will produce rain
and higher elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest overnight
Sunday into Monday. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, the snow will end over
the Cascades, with the rain continuing through late Tuesday afternoon.

In addition, the SPC has issued a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts
of the Southern Rockies and Central/Southern High Plains on Sunday into
Monday morning due to gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels.
The threat of Critical fire weather decreases to mainly the Southern High
Plains on Monday into Tuesday morning.

Ziegenfelder




Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php