Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 21 2022 - 12Z Wed Mar 23 2022

...Heavy to excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms likely
Monday-Tuesday across portions of the Deep South...

...Critical risk of fire weather continues Monday for parts of the
southern Plains...


The biggest story during the short range period will be a strong spring
storm pushing across the southern U.S. to bring widespread heavy rainfall
and severe weather Monday and Tuesday. Significant moisture and
instability will stream north ahead of the upper level system allowing for
widespread heavy rain and strong thunderstorms to develop across parts of
the southern and central Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley
today. This system will slowly progress eastward, pushing into the South
and Southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. Rainfall totals around 2-3", with
locally higher amounts, are possible with the potential for numerous and
significant flash flooding. WPC has highlighted parts of east Texas to
northern LA (Monday) and eastern LA to central AL (Tuesday) within a
moderate risk for excessive rainfall. Meanwhile, SPC is highlighting an
enhanced to moderate risk for severe weather across roughly the same
region, with widespread severe storms capable of strong tornadoes, large
hail, and damaging winds.

Rain is also likely farther north and east across the central U.S.,
Midwest, and eventually the Ohio Valley as the storm becomes more
developed over the coming days. Sufficiently cold air on the west side of
this system will likely allow for some moderate to locally heavy snow
across the central and southern Rockies into parts of western Kansas and
the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Wintry weather is also possible into
the far northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, with rain changing
to snow and generally light freezing rain accumulations as well across the
Upper Lakes. Additionally, gusty winds and dry conditions behind the cold
front will continue to create a favorable environment for fire weather
concerns across portions of west-central Texas on Monday.

Elsewhere, a system into the Northwest U.S. will bring rain and mountain
snow to parts of the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with much of the Western
U.S. drying out and warming up after Monday as a strong upper ridge builds
in across the region. Temperatures by Tuesday could be 10 to 20 degrees
above normal for parts of California and western Oregon, with record highs
possible for parts of southwest California and the northern interior
valley. 

Santorelli


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php