Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
438 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 22 2022 - 00Z Thu Mar 24 2022

...Heavy to excessive rainfall together with severe thunderstorms likely
across the Deep South through early Wednesday...

...Snow expected across portions of the central High Plains through
Tuesday morning; mixed precipitation expected to develop over the upper
Midwest to upper Great Lakes on Tuesday and linger into Wednesday...

...Critical risk of fire weather across southwestern Texas through
tonight...

A low pressure system currently developing over the southern Plains is
expected to bring widespread inclement weather across the mid-section of
the country through Tuesday before spreading into the eastern U.S. on
Wednesday.  A deep and broad surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
will interact will strong dynamics ahead of a cold front to trigger heavy
rain and strong thunderstorms starting from eastern Texas later
tonight/early Tuesday and will continue spreading steadily eastward
through the Deep South and into the Tennessee Valley through Tuesday
night.  Rainfall totals of around 2-3", with locally higher amounts, are
forecast in these areas with the potential for numerous and significant
flash flooding.  WPC has highlighted the interior portion of the Deep
South within a moderate risk for excessive rainfall.  Meanwhile, SPC
continues to highlight an enhanced to moderate risk for severe weather
across roughly the same region, where widespread severe storms are capable
of producing strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.

On the cold side of the system, an area of snow is expanding across the
central High Plains behind a reinforcing surge of colder air coming from
the north.  The snow should spread eastward into tonight resulting in
locally 6 inches of accumulation possible across western Kansas before
tapering off during the day on Tuesday.  As the low pressure system
develops further and tracks toward the Great Lakes, mixed precipitation is
expected to develop over the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes
on Tuesday.  The wintry weather will likely linger in these areas on
Wednesday as the low pressure system slows down and gradually weakens. 
Rain is also likely farther south across the Midwest and the Ohio Valley
Tuesday into Wednesday. Meanwhile, the moisture surge ahead of the cold
front should become not as vigorous as the rain pushes into the Southeast
and the Appalachians by Wednesday morning but pockets of heavy rain are
still possible.  By Wednesday afternoon, the rain should make its way into
the interior Mid-Atlantic region.

As the storm intensifies over the southern Plains tonight, gusty winds and
dry conditions behind the cold front will create a favorable environment
for fire weather concerns across southwestern Texas.

Elsewhere, a frontal system approaching the Pacific Northwest will bring
rain and mountain snow into the region through tonight before drying out
on Tuesday as a strong upper ridge begins to build along the West Coast. 
Temperatures by Tuesday is forecast to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal
for the inland sections of the West Coast, with record highs possible in
parts of California and the northern interior valley by Tuesday afternoon.
 More record high temperatures are forecast on Wednesday in these areas.

Kong


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php