Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 406 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Valid 00Z Wed Mar 23 2022 - 00Z Fri Mar 25 2022 ...Heavy to excessive rainfall together with severe thunderstorms likely across the Deep South Tuesday with a lessening threat into the Southeast on Wednesday... ...Some wintry weather possible across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Tuesday into Wednesday... ...Record heat for parts of California mid-week, with a critical fire weather threat across the southern High Plains... A robust spring storm currently in the southern Plains will continue the threat for unsettled weather across the central U.S. and Midwest on Tuesday, and into the East by Wednesday. A deep surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico interacting with favorable dynamics both at the surface and aloft helped fuel widespread heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms across eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley overnight, which should steadily press eastward into the central Gulf Coast and Tennessee Valley states today. Rainfall totals of 3-5 inches, with locally higher amounts, are forecast in this region through Tuesday night, contributing to numerous and potentially significant flash flooding. WPC has highlighted parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into Mississippi and Alabama within a moderate risk for excessive rainfall. At the same time, SPC continues to highlight an enhanced to moderate risk for severe weather across roughly the same region, with storms capable of producing strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Rainfall associated with this system will also expand into the Midwest and middle/upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, with some wintry precipitation possible across far northern regions. Generally light to moderate snow and freezing rain accumulations are possible into Wednesday across northern Minnesota and the northern Great Lakes. The storm system will move into the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, although impacts are expected to be less widespread and less intense. Even so, WPC still shows a slight risk for flash flooding across the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday, with SPC highlighting a slight risk for severe weather up into the Southeast. This system should exit the East Coast on Thursday, with some lingering heavy coastal rain and light snow across New England. A cold air mass for this time of the year should filter in behind this system, with much below normal temperatures across the southern Rockies and High Plains on Tuesday, moving into the Mississippi Valley and the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday. Elsewhere, gusty winds and dry conditions across the southern High Plains should lead to another day of elevated to critical fire weather threats on Wednesday. A front into the Northwest, will spread light rain and mountain snows across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies on Tuesday. A ridge building across the Western U.S. during mid week will bring well above normal temperatures to much of the West with daytime highs running 10 to 20 degrees, or more, in some places. Record highs are possible in parts of mainly the interior valley of California through at least Thursday. Santorelli Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php