Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 23 2022 - 00Z Fri Mar 25 2022

...Heavy to excessive rainfall with severe thunderstorms likely across the
Deep South on Tuesday with a lessening threat into the Southeast and Ohio
Valley on Wednesday...

...Wintry weather possible across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday
into Wednesday...

...Critical fire weather threat across western Texas on Wednesday, with
above-average temperatures in the West through midweek...

A potent storm system in the central U.S. will continue to bring a
multitude of weather hazards to the Midwest and Southeast today before
moving into the East on Wednesday, as it continues its progression
throughout the afternoon and evening. Warm, moist air being advected from
the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an advancing cold front, accompanied by
favorable dynamics at the surface and aloft, will lead to dangerous severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across a large portion of the lower
Mississippi Valley today. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
has issued a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms in eastern Louisiana
and southern Mississippi, where tornadoes, some of which are expected to
be strong, and potentially widespread damaging winds can be expected. Due
to the convective nature of these storms, heavy rainfall rates are also
likely, leading to a moderate risk of excessive rainfall being issued for
Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi, where the potential for 3-5 inches
(locally upwards of 6-9 inches) of rainfall exists. The severe threat
should wane into the overnight hours as the environment becomes less
favorable for the development and continuation of thunderstorms. Further
north, cooler temperatures behind the cold front will allow for wintry
precipitation, with portions of the UP of Michigan, and northeastern
Minnesota under Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories, where
several inches of snow, in addition to sleet and freezing rain is possible.

The storm system will move into the East on Wednesday, where hazards are
expected to be less severe as a cooler, more stable airmass will inhibit
the convective potential that was present on Tuesday. However, the SPC has
issued two areas of Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms in western Ohio
and Indiana, as well as a large swath of the Southeast coastal plain,
stretching from North Carolina southward into the Florida panhandle. Large
hail and strong wind gusts are the most probable severe hazards, but a
tornado or two is also possible, especially in the Southeast. Furthermore,
a small Slight Risk for excessive rainfall has also been issued for parts
of the Florida panhandle. Elsewhere, light to moderate rainfall is
expected across much of the Northeast, with pockets of wintry
precipitation in the highest elevations of interior New England, where
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Conditions should begin to
improve during the Thursday afternoon hours, as the low-pressure begins to
move offshore. In its wake, pleasant conditions can be expected in the
Eastern region with seasonable temperatures through the end of the week.

Further west, dry conditions and strong winds across southwestern Texas
and the Plains have led to elevated to critical fire weather threats on
Wednesday, with the threat diminishing on Thursday as winds subside ahead
of a high pressure building in. A weak storm system is also expected to
move through the western U.S. this week, bringing with it the potential
for light rain showers in the valleys, and snow showers in the higher
elevations of the Intermountain West. Furthermore, temperatures running
10-20 degrees F above-average are possible in the West through midweek,
with portions of California and the Great Basin potentially experiencing
record high-temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.

Russell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php