Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 24 2022 - 00Z Sat Mar 26 2022

...A lessening threat for severe weather and flash flooding will persist
over the Southeast and Midwest today...

...Some snow and ice accumulations continue into today for northern parts
of the Great Lakes, before shifting into interior New England...

...Critical fire weather threat for parts of the Southern Plains, with
record warmth through this weekend across the West...

The same storm system which brought widespread severe weather and heavy
rainfall the past couple of days across the Deep South will continue into
the Eastern U.S. today, although the severe and flash flood threat should
wane somewhat as the environment becomes less favorable. Even still, heavy
rainfall is possible along the front across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
today. WPC maintains a broad Marginal risk (threat level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, with an
embedded focused Slight Risk area (threat level 2/4) over the eastern
Florida Panhandle. SPC is also monitoring two areas for organized severe
weather today over the Ohio River Valley and Georgia/Carolina Piedmont,
both under a Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) for the threat of a couple
tornadoes, severe wind, and hail. Over the last hour, Severe Thunderstorm
and Tornado watches were issued over these regions as thunderstorm
development is underway. Northwest of the low, modest snow and ice
accumulations are anticipated through tonight across portions of the
Northern Tier and Upper Peninsula, with up to 2 inches of snowfall and a
glazing of ice possible. The threat of wintry weather is then expected to
shift over interior New England this evening, where up to an inch of snow
and a tenth of an inch of ice could fall. In advance of the impending
wintry weather, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect through tomorrow
for Northeast New York into Northern Maine. In the wake of this expansive
and dynamic system, a colder air mass should settle in, with cool
northwesterly flow supporting a cooler than average pattern across the
eastern half of the U.S. through this weekend.    

Elsewhere, gusty winds and dry conditions will continue an Elevated to
Critical fire (threat revels 1/3 and 2/3, respectively) weather threat
across western to central/southern Plains through Friday, per SPC. A weak
front into the West will bring some light rain and mountain snow to parts
of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, but there shouldn't be much
precipitation to accompany the front as it moves east into the interior
West and northern Plains. Some rain or wintry weather may develop with the
front into the Upper Great Lakes on Friday, with another period of gusty
winds possible.

A strong and expansive upper level ridge parked over the Western U.S. will
bring much above normal temperatures to much of the western half of the
country through at least the remainder of the work week. Daytime highs for
parts of California and the Great Basin could be 10 to 20 degrees above
normal. Numerous daily record high temperatures are possible through this
weekend west over the Great Basin and Southwest. 

Asherman/Santorelli


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php