Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 AM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 28 2022 - 12Z Wed Mar 30 2022

...Much below-average temperatures are expected from the Great Lakes into
the Northeast, with records possible...

...Lake effect snow to remain active off the Lower Great Lakes, beginning
to diminish overnight Monday...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
High Plains...

...Rain and snow return to the West...

A deep upper-level trough over the Great Lakes to the Northeast will allow
temperatures to be 15 to 30 degrees below average over the region. As a
result, the temperatures will be a record or tied for a record cold high
temperatures over parts of the Northeast Coast, which will start to
moderate on Tuesday. In addition, the associated upper-level energy will
aid in producing lake effect snow over the Great Lakes and upslope snow
for Northern New England through late Monday night when the snow will end,
from west to east.

Meanwhile, a deep upper-level low will begin to move onshore over
California, moving inland to the Plains by Wednesday. Therefore, light
rain will develop over most of the West Coast, with moderate snow over the
Sierra Nevada Mountains on Monday. Furthermore, a stream of moisture will
flow into Southern California, producing a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall on Monday. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, the rain and higher
elevation snow will move the Northern/Central Rockies and Great
Basin/Southwest, ending mainly by Wednesday.

As the storm moves out of the Rockies on Tuesday, moisture will start to
flow northward over the Plains and Mississippi Valley. The moisture will
aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and adjacent parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley. Some of the thunderstorms will become severe. Therefore, from
Tuesday into Wednesday morning, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and adjacent parts
of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over the area on Tuesday into
Wednesday morning.

Furthermore, rain and snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains.
An area of light rain/freezing rain will develop over a wide area from the
Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes and parts of the Central
Appalachians overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

In addition, the SPC has issued a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts
of the Southern High Plains Monday into Tuesday morning due to gusty
winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels. The threat of a Critical Risk
of fire weather expands on Tuesday into Wednesday morning over most of the
parts of the Southern High Plains.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php