Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 29 2022 - 00Z Thu Mar 31 2022

...Record cold for portions of the upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast Tuesday morning...

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible from the central to
southern Plains into the middle and lower Mississippi Valleys Tuesday
night into Wednesday...

...Critical Risk of fire weather for the southern to central High Plains...

As an upper level low departs from the Northeast tonight, scattered snow
showers will dissipate as high pressure settles in from the west. Well
below average temperatures across the upper Ohio Valley and Northeast will
continue into Tuesday morning where record cold minimum temperatures are
expected Tuesday morning, extending from the upper Ohio Valley into the
East Coast between eastern Virginia and southern New England. Temperatures
will moderate into the middle of the week but remain below average over
the Northeast through Wednesday, to the north of an advancing warm front.

A large closed upper level low just off of the coast of California will
drive much of the impactful weather over the lower 48 heading into the
middle of the week. Locally heavy rain along the central to southern coast
of California will come to an end tonight as the upper level system and
associated cold front move into the Desert Southwest. Scattered showers
and higher elevation heavy snow will spread across the Intermountain West
through Tuesday while high temperatures out ahead of the upper level
system remain above average into the 70s and 80s across the Great Plains.
Warm temperatures and low moisture values will favor the threat for the
spreading of wildfires. SPC has portions of the southern and central Great
Plains in a threat for Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for
the rest of today into Tuesday, mainly behind a dryline forecast over
western Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.

As the upper level system tracks east late Tuesday into Wednesday,
favorable upper level dynamics will meet with increasing amounts of low
level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to support the development of what
is likely to be a south to north axis of thunderstorms stretching from
portions of central Texas into Oklahoma and southern Kansas. The line of
strong to severe thunderstorms will track east late Tuesday night into
Wednesday, bringing the potential for tornadoes, large hail, damaging
straight-line winds and flash flooding. Temperatures will drop
significantly in the wake of the cold front as it tracks eastward into the
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. On the north side of the storm system,
winter weather is expected with light snow accumulations across the
north-central U.S. along with a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain
across the Great Lakes region into parts of the Allegheny Plateau and
Northeast.

Otto

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php