Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 30 2022 - 00Z Fri Apr 01 2022

...Severe thunderstorms possible in the Nation's Heartland this evening;
Regional severe weather outbreak to unfold across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Southeast on Wednesday; more severe storms in the East on
Thursday...

...There is an Extreme Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
High Plains this afternoon and evening...

...Accumulating snow in parts of the central Rockies and Upper Midwest,
icy conditions possible in the Great Lakes and central Appalachians
Wednesday morning; warmer temps return to the Ohio Valley and Northeast,
cooling trend in the Plains and Midwest...

A vigorous upper level trough emerging out of the Rockies will be
responsible for generating severe thunderstorms from the Plains to the
Southeast over the next couple days. The first round of severe weather
takes shape due to a strengthening surface low pressure system in the
Central Plains this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has
issued an expansive Slight Risk area (threat level 2/5) stretching from
western Iowa on south into central Texas. Severe hazards such as large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible with southeast
Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and far north-central Texas most at risk for
tornadoes. The severe threat moves east on Wednesday where and even more
dangerous setup for severe storms is expected in the Deep South. SPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (threat level 4/5) over the Lower Mississippi
Valley, across southwest Tennessee, for virtually all of Mississippi, and
southwest Alabama. In these areas, there is an increased threat of EF2-EF5
tornadoes and severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater. The
severe threat extends as far north as central Illinois and central
Indiana. In addition, due to the associated heavy rain, the Weather
Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the
heart of the Deep South. The associated heavy rainfall may result in
localized areas of flash flooding with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable through Wednesday night. The severe threat
moves to the East Coast by Thursday with a pair of Slight Risks (threat
level 2/5) in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

Thunderstorms are not the only mode of severe weather on tap today. The
SPC has issued an Extreme Risk of fire weather in parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains this afternoon due to strong gusty winds, low
relative humidity, and sufficiently dry fuels. The winds are so strong
that High Wind Warnings have been issued from far West Texas and the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to central Kansas. The Critical Risk for
favorable fire weather conditions is quite expansive, extending from
central Kansas on south and west into West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
A Critical Risk of fire weather continues into Wednesday and Wednesday
night across the southern third of Texas. There is also an Elevated Risk
for fire weather conditions in parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and
into central Georgia through Wednesday evening courtesy of gusty southerly
winds and dry relative humidity levels well ahead of an approaching cold
front.

Elsewhere, while the calendar is just about ready to flip over to April,
"Old Man Winter" is not through just yet as the aforementioned upper
trough in the Rockies will also help to produce periods of snow. Snow will
pile up in the central Rockies tonight with as much as a foot of snow
possible by Wednesday morning. Speaking of Wednesday morning, an icy
morning commute is possible from the central Appalachians to the Upper
Great Lakes where light snow accumulations and ice accretion up to two
tenths of an inch are possible. This has resulted in the issuance of
Winter Weather Advisories for these highlighted regions. As the primary
wave of low pressure deepens over the Midwest Wednesday, on the storm's
northern and western flanks, periods of snow are anticipated in the
northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley with accumulations generally
staying under 4 inches. The heaviest totals are likely to occur in
Michigan's Upper Peninsula with the heaviest snowfall rates arriving late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Up to a foot of snow is possible in
the U.P. with locally high amounts possible. Temperature-wise, a
more-spring-like airmass returns to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, which
then moves into the Northeast by Thursday. On the backside of the storm
system, cooler than normal temperatures look to filter into the Northern
Plains and Midwest

Mullinax

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php