Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 30 2022 - 12Z Fri Apr 01 2022

...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall threat on Wednesday into
Friday morning...

...Heavy snow over the Upper Great Lakes and widespread rain/freezing rain
from parts of the Great Lakes to Central Appalachians/Northern New
England...

...There are multiple areas of Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of
the Southern Plains, Ohio/Tennessee Valley, and parts of the Florida
Peninsula on Wednesday...

A strong storm over Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains moves north and
eastward to Eastern Canada and Maine by Friday morning. The storm will
produce showers and thunderstorms from the Great Lakes to the Southern
Plains; some of the thunderstorms will be severe. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast through Thursday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition,
over the Central Gulf Coast, Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, and the
Southeast, there is an increased threat of EF2-EF5 tornadoes and severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater.

Moreover, due to the associated heavy rain, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee
Valley/Southeast through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable.

The severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall threat decrease slightly
from Thursday into Friday as the associated front moves eastward.
Consequently, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms
over two regions, the northern Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast Coast,
Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast Thursday into Friday.
The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.
Additionally, temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average ahead of
the cold front.

Meanwhile, rain and snow will develop over parts of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. An area of light
rain/freezing rain will develop over a wide area from the Upper Great
Lakes and parts of the Central Appalachians Wednesday into Thursday
morning. Likewise, snow and rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of
Northern New England overnight late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
morning. A multiple-day heavy snow event will develop over northern
Michigan near Lake Superior. Snow will also develop over most of Michigan
and parts of the Ohio Valley on Thursday. On Friday, the snow will slowly
taper off over parts of the Northeast/Central Appalachians.

In addition, the SPC has issued a Critical Risk of fire weather over
multiple areas on Wednesday. The first area is over the southern third of
Texas, with the second over parts of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. The
third is over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, while the fourth is
over parts of the Florida Peninsula due to gusty winds, low relative
humidity, and dry fuels. On Thursday, the threat reduced in area and
category to an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Florida
Peninsula.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php