Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Apr 06 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 06 2022 - 12Z Fri Apr 08 2022

...An expansive low pressure system will deliver persistent wet snow over
the upper Midwest, strong to severe thunderstorms across the Southeast,
and areas of heavy rain along the East Coast...

...Widespread strong/high winds continue through Thursday from the Rockies
to much of the Plains with elevated to extreme fire risk over the central
to southern High Plains...

...Heat is expected to challenge high temperature records over
California...

A deep low pressure system centered over the upper Midwest this morning is
forecast to further expand its influence as it engulfs much of the eastern
two-thirds of the country through the next couple of days.  Widespread
high winds gusting to hurricane force have already been impacting much of
the northern and central Rockies and out into the northern and central
Plains.  The expansive circulation of the cyclone against a strong area of
high pressure centered over the Northwest will combine to sustain strong
to high winds through much of the Plains into late week.  Closer to the
center of the cyclone, wet snow is forecast to persist for a couple of
days from the upper Midwest into the upper Great Lakes as the cyclone
meanders in the same vicinity with some areas receiving 6 to 12 inches of
accumulation possible.  Colder than normal temperatures behind the huge
circulation will dive all the way down to the Gulf Coast.  Under the
continued impact of high winds and dry air flowing down the Rockies, fire
weather threat is expected reach extreme levels over the southern High
Plains today and will remain at elevated levels into late week.

Furthermore, a strong front over the Upper Midwest to the Southern High
Plains, along with a wave of low pressure on the associated warm front
over the Mid-Atlantic, will produce rain and snow over the Upper Midwest
and showers and thunderstorms over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley to
the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic overnight Tuesday into Thursday.
In addition, upper-level energy over the Southeast will destabilize the
atmosphere over the area, creating conditions favorable for severe
thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast and Southeast through
Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there is a greater chance of EF2-EF5 tornadoes over
parts of the Southeast during this time. In addition, heavy rain will be
associated with these thunderstorms. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

The Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms continues on Wednesday over
parts of the Southeast and Southern Appalachians; producing hazards with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Likewise, the threat of excessive
rainfall continues over parts of the Southeast as the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over the
region. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.

On Thursday, the threat of severe thunderstorms moves to the Mid-Atlantic
Coast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.


Kong/Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php