Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Wed Apr 06 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 07 2022 - 00Z Sat Apr 09 2022

...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday...

...Multi-day wet snow and local lake effect event over the Upper Midwest
through Friday...

...There is an Extreme to Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Plains...

Deep low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and a strong area of high
pressure over the Pacific Northwest will combine to produce a very strong
pressure gradient over the Northern/Central High Plains, prompting High
Wind Warnings over the Region through Wednesday evening to midnight local
time.

Furthermore, a strong front over the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Gulf
Coast, along with a wave of low pressure on the associated warm front over
the Mid-Atlantic, will produce rain and snow over the Upper Midwest and
showers and thunderstorms over the Ohio Valley south and eastward to the
Southeast and the coast to the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
overnight Wednesday into late Thursday. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern
Appalachians and Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In
addition, heavy rain will be associated with these thunderstorms.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall through
Thursday morning over Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

The severe thunderstorm threat decreases slightly on Thursday over parts
of the Southeast and Southern Appalachians. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast and
Southern Appalachians for Thursday through Friday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. The threat of
excessive rainfall ends over the Southeast on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Multi-day wet snow and local lake effect event will develop
over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes. Some areas
get 12 inches of lake effect snow with the favorable flow off Lake
Superior. Additionally, rain and snow will start over the Upper Peninsula
of Michigan and Wisconsin on Wednesday afternoon into evening, then
changes over to wet snow. The snow will continue over the region through
Thursday evening, then light snow over most of the region. However, the
lake effect will continue in the western portions of the Upper Peninsula
of Michigan with the flow off of Lake Superior.

Gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels will contribute to the SPC
issuing an Extreme Risk over the Southern High Plains in Texas and
Oklahoma on Wednesday into Thursday morning. However, on Thursday, the
fire weather threat will decrease to an Elevated Risk over the Southern
High Plains.

Furthermore, an approaching front over the Pacific will move onshore over
the Pacific Northwest overnight Thursday moving to the Northern Rockies by
late afternoon Friday. As a result, light rain will develop over parts of
the Northwest overnight Thursday and continue into Friday. After the front
passes on Friday morning, the snow levels will lower over the Cascades,
allowing light snow to develop at higher elevations.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php