Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 AM EDT Thu Apr 07 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 07 2022 - 12Z Sat Apr 09 2022

...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday...

...Wet snow over the upper Midwest will begin to taper off on Friday as
strong and gusty cold winds persist across much of the Plains...

...Elevated to extreme fire weather risk over portions of the central to
southern Plains as temperatures reach record levels in parts of
California...

A deep and expansive low pressure system centered over the upper Midwest
has begun to weaken but more unsettled weather is expected for much of the
northern and eastern U.S. over the next couple of days.  First of all,
much of the northern and central Plains will continue to be impacted by
strong and gusty winds through today and into Friday as the cyclone pulls
abnormally cold air down from Canada.  To the north of the storm center,
temperatures will be cold enough to support wet snow from northern
Minnesota to the upper Great Lakes while mixed rain and snow can be
expected farther south into the upper Midwest.  Some areas near the south
shore of Lake Superior could get a foot or more of snow given favorable
enhancement across the lake waters.  As the low pressure system gradually
weakens with time, it will begin to slide across the Great Lakes with some
lake effect snow to continue downwind from the lake waters.  The large
area of precipitation associated with the system will then head across the
Ohio Valley toward the Appalachians on Friday.  By early Saturday morning,
some wet snow can be expected across the higher elevations from the upper
Ohio Valley to the Appalachians as temperatures drop to near freezing at
the coldest locations. 

Meanwhile on the warm side of the system, scattered clusters of showers
and thunderstorms are steadily moving into the East Coast ahead of an
active cold front.  The southeastern U.S. will be under the highest threat
of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms this morning, possibly reaching the
Mid-Atlantic coast during the day as a low pressure wave is forecast to
develop along the cold front.  This area of low pressure is expected to
intensify and move up toward the southern New England coast by tonight. 
Some enhanced rainfall ahead of the low is forecast to move through New
England tonight along with gusty winds.  In addition, the higher
elevations of interior New England could see rain changing to a period of
wintry precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning.

Gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels will continue to promote elevated
to extreme fire danger over portions of the central to southern Plains for
today with a gradually diminishing threat by the weekend.

A strong ridge of high pressure aloft is forecast to build across the
western U.S. into late week.  This ridge will dispel the cold and windy
weather up north as heat will progressively build across the Southwest. 
In fact, high temperatures are forecast to challenge records by this
afternoon in California, with readings possibly reaching the century mark
near Los Angeles.  Gusty Santa Ana winds could also make an appearance as
the Rockies high pressure system builds southward.  More record high
temperatures are forecast for Friday as the next Pacific cold front
reaches the West Coast with rain/snow reaching the Pacific Northwest
tonight/Friday morning.  By Saturday morning, much colder air will be
ushered across the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West, and into the
northern Rockies behind the strong cold front, along with very gusty winds.

Kong


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php