Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 352 PM EDT Thu Apr 07 2022 Valid 00Z Fri Apr 08 2022 - 00Z Sun Apr 10 2022 ...Severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and excessive rainfall over parts of the Northeast through Friday... ...Upper-level low to produce snow and rain showers over parts of the Midwest to Central Appalachians... ...There is an Extreme to Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Plains... Deep low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and an area of high pressure over the Northern Rockies will combine to produce a very strong pressure gradient over the Northern/Central Plains, prompting High Wind Warnings over the Region through Thursday evening. Furthermore, an upper-level low over the Upper Great Lakes/Western Ohio Valley will move slowly to the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast by Saturday evening before weakening. The upper-level low will produce rain and snow over the Upper Midwest and rain and showers/thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley south and eastward to the Southeast Coast through late Thursday. Thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic will be severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. As the associated lead front moves off the coast, the threat of severe thunderstorms ends on Friday. In addition, there will be a strong flow of moisture from the Atlantic into the Northeast through early Friday morning. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall through Friday morning over parts of the Northeast. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams being the most vulnerable. On Friday, the strong flow of moisture will end; therefore, the threat of excessive rainfall will end. Meanwhile, lake effect snow will develop over the Upper Great Lakes under the upper-level low. The heaviest lake effect snow will be over the western portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan with the flow off of Lake Superior. Additionally, rain and snow showers will continue over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley through Saturday. Upslope flow snow will develop over parts of the Central Appalachians from late Friday to Saturday. Strong gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels will contribute to the SPC issuing an Extreme Risk of fire weather over the Southern High Plains in Texas and Oklahoma on Thursday into Friday morning. However, on Friday, the fire weather threat will decrease to an Elevated Risk over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains. In addition, upper-level ridging over portions of California and the Southwest will aid in producing tied or record high temperatures over the area through Friday. Furthermore, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest overnight, moving to the Northern Plains to the Great Basin by Saturday. As a result, light rain will develop over parts of the Northwest early Friday morning. After the front passes on Friday morning, the snow levels will lower over the Cascades, allowing light snow to develop at higher elevations and overnight Friday in the Northern Rockies. The coastal rain will continue over the Northwest and light snow showers from the Cascades eastward through late Saturday afternoon. Ziegenfelder Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php