Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Apr 09 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 10 2022 - 00Z Tue Apr 12 2022

...A widespread area of the central and southern High Plains will have
elevated to critical fire weather concerns through the weekend and into
early next week...

...A major late-season winter storm will begin to impact the West by early
next week with strong winds, heavy rain, and heavy mountain snow...

...Severe weather is expected to begin impacting areas of the southern
Plains and the lower to middle Mississippi Valley by Monday...

A very active weather pattern is expected to ensue across the Western U.S.
by early next week as a strong area of low pressure develops just offshore
of the Pacific Northwest Sunday night and moves inland on Monday across
the Intermountain West. Strong onshore flow will drive copious amounts of
moisture inland and this will initially yield heavy rain Sunday night for
the coastal ranges of especially western Oregon and northwest California
with heavy snowfall over the Cascades. On Monday, all of this moisture
along with colder temperatures will overspread the Great Basin and the
northern Rockies as a cold front pushes east with the aforementioned low
center. This will set the stage for a major late-season winter storm with
strong winds and widespread heavy snowfall for the Intermountain West and
especially for the northern Rockies going through Monday night into early
Tuesday. Going through early Tuesday, as much as 1 to 2 feet of snow will
be possible for the higher terrain, with the heaviest amounts this period
expected to be over the Oregon Cascades.

Meanwhile, in the lee of the Rockies involving the central and southern
High Plains, there will be notable concerns for wildfire activity through
the remainder of the weekend and into early next week as locally gusty
winds, low relative humidity, and lack of soil moisture given the ongoing
drought all work in tandem to promote elevated to critical fire weather
concerns. This threat will continue until the strong storm system in the
West ejects out into the Plains later next week.

Areas of the Central and Eastern U.S. will be relatively tranquil compared
to the Western U.S., but there will be a cold front crossing the Midwest
and the Great Lakes region late Sunday through Monday, and this will bring
a threat of rain and perhaps a little wet snow to areas of the Upper
Midwest. Farther south across portions of the lower Missouri Valley and
gradually the southern Plains to the middle Mississippi Valley, there will
be a threat of showers and thunderstorms as the aforementioned front drops
down across this region. On Monday some severe weather will be possible
across these areas, and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a
Slight Risk of severe weather as thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes.

Orrison

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php