Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 11 2022 - 12Z Wed Apr 13 2022

...There is a critical to extreme threat for fire weather over a large
portion of the Southwest and the Central/Southern High Plains into next
week...

...A major late-season winter storm will begin to impact the West by
tonight with strong winds, heavy rain, and heavy mountain snow...

...Severe weather and Flash Flooding are expected to begin impacting areas
of the Southern Plains and the lower-to-middle Mississippi Valley by this
afternoon...

A deep area of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest today,
bringing with it a substantial plume of Pacific moisture. Rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected along the coast and inland low-lying
areas over the next couple of days. A few feet of snow will blanket the
Oregon Cascades as well. This system will deepen as it moves farther
inland, setting the stage for an intense late season winter storm to
impact the Rockies and Northern Plains. Heavy snow and high winds are
forecast to spread into the Rockies and Northern Plains this evening. Over
a foot of snow is likely to accumulate between eastern Montana and central
North Dakota on Tuesday. Blizzard-like conditions are possible for this
area due to strong winds coupling with high snow rates. Power outages and
difficult travel conditions are likely. Winter Storm Watches, Warnings and
Advisories are in effect for the southern Cascades, Rockies and the
Northern Plains.

Downstream of this winter storm, a weaker storm system will impact the
Mississippi Valley, Midwest and Northeast today. Rain and scattered to
isolated thunderstorms will focus along a cold front moving through the
aforementioned areas. This slow moving cold front may cause rain rates to
be high enough over parts of the Tennessee/Middle Mississippi Valley that
isolated instances of flash flooding occur. Heightened instability
clashing with the weak cold front over the Southern Plains and
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley will be conducive to the development of
isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms through this evening. The Storm
Prediction Center issued a Slight and an embedded Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms from northeast Texas to the Mid-South for today.

The winter storm will continue to deepen and become more dynamic as it
enters into the Great Plains on Tuesday. Rain and thunderstorms are
expected to expand across the Plains and Mississippi Valley Tuesday
evening through Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms are possible over much of
this area where the Storm Prediction Center has issued another Slight and
embedded Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall may focus
around Louisiana and the greater Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday where
a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. Dry conditions beneath
this low pressure system will exacerbate an ongoing extreme drought over
the Southwest and Southern/Central Plains. This, combined with high winds
and warmer than normal temperatures, will contribute to a Critical Risk of
Fire Weather through midweek. There is an Extreme Risk of Fires for parts
of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle and into southern Kansas on Tuesday due to
the potential for 30-40 mph sustained winds, 50+ mph gusts and unusually
warm/dry conditions. A dangerous fire weather outbreak is possible as a
result.

Kebede


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php