Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 12 2022 - 00Z Thu Apr 14 2022

...Major winter storm to bring heavy snow to the Intermountain West and
blizzard conditions for parts of the northern Plains tonight into
Thursday...

...Threats for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding exist across
eastern portions of the central to southern Plains into the Mississippi
Valley through Tuesday night...

...Dangerous fire weather conditions for the southern to central High
Plains through mid=week...

A large storm system that was moving into the western U.S. Monday
afternoon will be responsible for a period of very active weather across
many areas of the lower 48 into the middle of the week. Heavy snow will
spread eastward across the Intermountain West through tonight as an area
of low pressure and trailing cold front tracks toward the Great Plains. A
strong low pressure system is forecast to track from the central High
Plains Tuesday morning into the upper Mississippi River Valley Tuesday
night as heavy snow spreads out into the north-central U.S. A combination
of heavy snow and strong wind gusts will produce blizzard conditions with
significant blowing and drifting of snow from the eastern slopes of the
northern Rockies across the northern Plains. A long duration snowfall
event spanning 1-2 days is likely to generate widespread 1-2 feet of
accumulation from eastern Montana into western and northern North Dakota
with potential for 2-3 feet in some locations before the storm ends.

Out ahead of the storm system, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
accompanied by isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding spanning from
portions of Arkansas into western Kentucky and Tennessee tonight. A larger
portion of the U.S. will be under a threat for severe weather on Tuesday,
with the Storm Prediction Center forecasting an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms extending from central Texas into eastern Nebraska and Iowa
for Tuesday. Flash flooding will be possible Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning from the storms, with a focused threat extending from
the Sabine River Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Behind a dryline, ongoing drought conditions combined with widespread
sustained winds of 30-40 mph and gusts over 50 mph will set up an
Extremely Critical risk for fire weather conditions from West Texas into
the central Plains. A significant fire weather outbreak will be possible
as a result, with favorable fire weather conditions continuing into
Wednesday for some of the same areas.

Temperatures are forecast to be well below average across the western U.S.
(15 to 30 degrees below average) through Wednesday while warm southerly
flow will transport well above average temperatures into the central and
eastern U.S. into mid-week. High temperatures from the Great Plains to
portions of the eastern U.S. are likely to be 10-25 degrees above average.

Otto


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php